Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the United States federal government enacts a ban or embargo on the export of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the U.S. at any point before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

To qualify:

• The action must be federal, implemented via an executive order, a federal agency action (e.g., from the Department of Energy or the Bureau of Industry and Security), or federal legislation signed into law. State-level proposals, actions, or non-binding resolutions do not qualify.

• The policy must legally prohibit or comprehensively restrict the export of U.S. diesel fuel to foreign markets (temporary bans or short-term emergency embargoes qualify, but narrow, non-binding guidelines or routine administrative export licensing adjustments do not).

• The ban must be officially announced and scheduled to take effect or be in effect prior to November 3, 2026.

• Credible financial and political news sources—such as Bloomberg, Reuters, or The Wall Street Journal—will be used to verify the outcomes.