Background Belgium is currently in the midst of government formation talks following ongoing negotiations between multiple parties. The formation process is being led by formateur Bart De Wever, with parties including N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, MR, and Les Engagés attempting to form a coalition. The outgoing government, led by Prime Minister De Croo, is currently preparing a provisional budget for 2025 in case a new government is not formed by the end of the year.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if a new federal government is sworn in and officially takes office before 23:59 CET on January 31, 2025. The market will resolve NO if:

• No new government is formed by the deadline

• The current caretaker government remains in place

• A provisional or temporary government arrangement is implemented without a formal new government being sworn in

Considerations

• Belgium has a history of lengthy government formation periods. In 2010-2011, the country went 541 days without a government, setting a world record

• The current negotiations face significant challenges in agreeing on a socio-economic program

• The European Commission may impose strict fiscal adjustments if a new government is not formed in time to implement reforms

• The preparation of a provisional 2025 budget by the current government suggests they are preparing for the possibility of extended negotiations