Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if an official, public agreement is reached where:

1. China facilitates a permanent peace deal involving Iran to end the current conflict.

2. Explicit, verifiable conditions of this deal include the provision or allowance of Nvidia chips (e.g., H200 or similar models) to Chinese entities or associated parties in exchange for this mediation.

This market resolves to NO if no such agreement is reached, or if any agreement reached does not explicitly link the peace deal to the provision or trade of Nvidia chips.

Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times) or official statements from the government offices of the United States, China, or Iran. If the agreement is claimed but denied by one of the primary parties, the market will remain unresolved until confirmed or definitively debunked by credible independent verification.

Background

The geopolitical landscape currently involves significant tension between the U.S. and Iran, with China acting as a major oil consumer and a point of diplomatic influence. The U.S. has maintained strict export controls on high-end Nvidia AI chips to China, though there have been specific, limited approvals for certain customers. Ongoing diplomatic discussions, including a high-stakes summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, have identified the Iran conflict and access to advanced semiconductor technology as key areas of potential negotiation. Trade and access to AI hardware remain central to U.S.-China bilateral relations, often intersecting with broader security and conflict-resolution efforts.

This description was generated by AI, and reviewed by Baba Ghanoush