A bet I'm very happy to lose 👍

@uair01 Same here!

@mods His death was officially announce by the IDF. resolves NO

I bought it down from 7% to 3% now, after seeing this: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/senior-israeli-official-high-likelihood-that-terrorist-killed-by-idf-was-hamass-sinwar/

@Shemetz Real probability for me is 1%

@Shai Now 0.2%

@Shemetz pictures of the body https://twitter.com/VividProwess/status/1846899604438028477

@brianwang wow I wasn’t fully prepared for that. Heavy.

@datachef https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1846957737487278263

Got caught slipping, no hostages around him.

@BaryLevy Those ynet notifications may be good for mana but they're not good for your mental health

@Shai I'll take the mana

50% chance of death in 2 months can't be fun

@Riley12 He may already be dead

USA is now bluntly saying that Sinwar is the main obstacle to peace.

This might be the soft signal that Hamas has to accept a deal soon or the US will approve/facilitate having him removed.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/22/hamas-sinwar-john-kirby-israel-00180384

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-israel-investigating-unlikely-possibility-that-hamas-chief-sinwar-has-been-killed-in-gaza/

@UnspecifiedPerson Rather unlikely, market updated too much.