Will the collapse of SVB directly lead to 10+ startups failing by the end of May?
resolved Jun 1

If 10 or more startups announce that due to the events this week at SVB they need to liquidate and shutter operations. Will include acquisitions at significant discount to valuation at time of last funding, or if unavailable based on comments by the founders or investors on the reason for an unexpected or hastily executed sale.

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Silicon Valley Bank, oh what a mess,
Startups may suffer from its distress,
But to predict ten will meet their end,
Is too bold, let’s wait and see my friend.

bought Ṁ110 of YES

I’m guessing anyone forced to close or liquidate cheap will blame SVB. It’s a free opportunity to shirk responsibility.

sold Ṁ3 of YES

This should be negligible now that the FDIC is guaranteeing all the deposits, right?

bought Ṁ2,000 of NO

@ian There's still a lot of other effects that we aren't sure about. For example, many startups had a line of credit from SVB - now that line of credit is gone.

predicted YES

Can’t vouch for the source, but until I get better data, I’m assuming 30% of all start ups were with SVB:

Across the world or just in the US?

predicted YES

@AbhijeetY Only SVB in the US has failed I believe. They have subsidiaries in Asia and Europe that are independently regulated.

predicted YES

@BTE yes but a lot of YC backed startups - operating in India - had US based VC funding parked in SVB. Do they count?

predicted YES

@AbhijeetY Yes I will count any YC company since they all relocate to the US at least during the program so could easily be exposed.

predicted NO
bought Ṁ45 of YES

I expect this number of startups to fail and to then blame the collapse unless it is completely implausible as an excuse (which it might end up being, if the bank gets rescued by Monday morning).

predicted YES

Would it count if they startup did not have their own money in SVB, but could not get their invoices paid from other companies which did?

@MatthewRitter No. This is just about companies with a direct relationship with svb.

bought Ṁ44 of YES

I would expect at least 10 startups to fail per 90d just a base rate, so it seems reasonably likely that they will cite SVB as the proximate factor