sad!

Scam

Very misleading since the title should reflect that

It is FAR from an endorsement. Read the pinned articles under the chart. She expressly says she will not endorse him. Endorsement implies supporting him. She does not support him or his policies. There is a big difference between an endorsement and voting for the lesser of two perceived evils.

@RickBlevins friend, the market description clearly states:

Resolves YES if by anytime prior to election day 2024 Nikki Haley endorses or says she intends to vote for Donald Trump.

BTE is banned and I don't hold a position here - resolving yes
https://apnews.com/article/nikki-haley-endorses-trump-election-2024-president-72cd80b03d0cd6f69601a0c6166194a5

@shankypanky

See the above articles where Niki Haley expressly said she wouldn't endorse Trump. She conceded the nomination and agreed to vote for him because he is a Republican but that is a LONG way from endorsing him. If you want to split hairs, you should just return everyone's bet, but saying she endorsed him is a stretch.

@shankypanky wait why was he banned?

@RickBlevins I'm not sure what you mean - the reference to "she would not immediately endorse Trump" was from two months ago when she conceded the nomination. Now she's going on record to say that between the two candidates, Biden would be a catastrophe and while Trump has not been perfect she's voting for him. This is an endorsement, do you not agree?

@shankypanky the description also says

"Resolves YES if by anytime prior to election day 2024 Nikki Haley endorses or says she intends to vote for Donald Trump." so this one is pretty clear.

the header on the AP website (which I linked because there isn't a paywall) says explicitly Nikki Haley Endorsement

@SemioticRivalry this is also true (thanks, I was replying from my phone)

@RickBlevins see the market description, which specifies going on record with an intent to vote for him (which she did today). the Yes resolution stands here.

Easy money. She had no choice. https://x.com/alx/status/1793386927573422198?s=46

I’m not persuaded by the “diminished career aspirations from the lack of an endorsement argument.” There are clearly a lot of Never Trump conservatives types for which she’s become a symbol and who continue to send her money. She can afford to be patient.

@CraigTalbert “Never Trump conservatives” in 2024 are basically a) Effectively just Democrats e.g Bill Kristol b) Sideshow grifters e.g Lincoln Project c) “principled” old school neocons who are now pariahs in the Republican party with no national future: Romney, Pence, Paul Ryan etc Can you point to a counter example? i.e Politician who is a plausible Republican nominee in 2028 who is not endorsing Trump?

Do you think Haley will attend the RNC or campaign for Republicans downballot without having endorsed Trump?

@diadematus If the last 10 years have taught us anything, it’s that people love apostates.

@diadematus you are without a doubt the worst capital allocator I have ever heard of

@Joshua you're just too cowardly to express your true probabilities

@Joshua I prefer to think of myseld as a “high conviction investor”. Curiously, I think buying NO on this or any related markets is the single dumbest trade on Manifold ;)

@diadematus 😂

@shankypanky

I will always remember this as the day I bet against Captain Jack Sparrow

@Joshua now that these have been resolved, I'd like to know what the Captain says is the new single dumbest trade on Manifold 🏴‍☠

Bill Barr has endorsed Trump, in case anyone is still delusional about what will happen here

@diadematus i put up a limit order at 99% if you want more action at that price lmao

@jacksonpolack 😊 i'd take more though

@jacksonpolack ROI is diminishing here but open some positions here https://manifold.markets/UnspecifiedPerson/who-will-nikki-haley-endorse-in-the?r=ZGlhZGVtYXR1cw or https://manifold.markets/EdA/will-nikki-haley-endorse-trump-for?r=ZGlhZGVtYXR1cw

Who will Nikki Haley endorse in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Who will Nikki Haley endorse for president in the general election in 2024? (Note: An endorsement for herself refers to if she either wins the nomination or runs as an independent or third party candidate.) I will not bet in this market.

@diadematus ok

@jacksonpolack lol!