195
1.1K
1.6K
Nov 9
45%
chance
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/03/06/us/haley-out-trump-election-updates
Mar 6
@OwenHenahan "Haley Cedes Republican Race to Trump, But Does Not Endorse Him" Direct quote from her speech follows: In all likelihood, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee when our party convention meets in July. I congratulate him and wish him well. I wish anyone well who would be America’s president. Our country is too precious to let our differences divide us. I have always been a conservative Republican and always supported the Republican nominee. But on this question, as she did on so many others, Margaret Thatcher provided some good advice when she said, quote, “Never just follow the crowd. Always make up your own mind.” It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that. At its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away. And our conservative cause badly needs more people. This is now his time for choosing.
Mar 6

Resolves YES if by anytime prior to election day 2024 Nikki Haley endorses or says she intends to vote for Donald Trump. Resolves NO if Haley says he will not endorse Trump or remains neutral.

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she will obviously endorse him? what am I missing here? do people actually think she would risk becoming a pariah in the Republican party and effectively end her political career over perceived differences with Trump? McConnell already has, Haley will, hell even Pence will. Republicans would only ever break with trump if it looks like he is a huge liability (Jan 6) or certain to lose (post-Access tape) which he's not

bought Ṁ100 NO

@diadematus Pence just said he won't endorse or vote for Trump and said "it should come as no surprise."

She also said the RNC pledge she made doesn't apply anymore because "it's not the same RNC."

In my opinion it's not inconceivable she goes the path of Chris Christie.

@Dismalduck my basic read is: anybody who wants/has any semblance of a future in Republican politics has to endorse Trump. Those that don't e.g Christie can afford to anti-Trump themselves into some NeverTrump gigs and pray that he loses. Pence is in that category so it's not too surprising and doesn't change my opinion on Haley in any way because he was DOA with MAGA to begin with and has no political future to speak of. Haley was angling for a VP role, but Trump basically dissed her so she's probably nursing hurt feelings and temporizing to create some semblance of leverage before eventually, reluctantly but obviously in hindsight capitulating during the convention or something. If she doesn't she'll be screwed if Trump wins, and screwed even further if Trump loses

@diadematus In 2016, when Trump’s power over the GOP was far less consolidated, Ted Cruz went on a limb and refused to endorse him at the RNC. His voters ate him alive, resulting in the embarrassing photo of him phonebanking for Trump that fall.

I think she ends up doing it reluctantly with the reasoning being "to unite the party and country". She wants a future

Related in Nikki. Will be a real finesse if she manages to endorse Trump without endorsing his actions after the 2020 election

@OwenHenahan "Haley Cedes Republican Race to Trump, But Does Not Endorse Him"

Direct quote from her speech follows:

In all likelihood, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee when our party convention meets in July. I congratulate him and wish him well. I wish anyone well who would be America’s president. Our country is too precious to let our differences divide us.

I have always been a conservative Republican and always supported the Republican nominee.

But on this question, as she did on so many others, Margaret Thatcher provided some good advice when she said, quote, “Never just follow the crowd. Always make up your own mind.”

It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that. At its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away. And our conservative cause badly needs more people. This is now his time for choosing.

@OwenHenahan Trump was also mocking her and talking about how he trounced her. This is an incredibly safe NO at this point in my eyes, though of course something could change later this year.

@OwenHenahan How do we define an endorsement though? There are definitely parts in that statement that if taken out of context, would count as an endorsement. It's an incredibly zigzaggy and confusing statement.

@Shump I think it's already pretty clear, but it becomes even clearer if you juxtapose this statement with DeSantis's much clearer one (https://apnews.com/article/ron-desantis-250c8ed4b49843350e258f0c2754c8ba) "“While I’ve had disagreements with Donald Trump, such as on the coronavirus pandemic and his elevation of Anthony Fauci, Trump is superior to the current incumbent, Joe Biden. That is clear,”.


The NYT also interpreted it as a lack of endorsement, while they were clear on DeSantis:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/21/us/politics/desantis-drops-out.html

@OwenHenahan To me this is unambiguously Not An Endorsement. Yet. But the market is open until Nov. 8 …

No endorsement in her campaign suspension speech. I doubt she'll get much air time anymore, it would be weird for her to flip on this, and the Trump campaign probably doesn't care about it.

@GCS Convention is a bigger stage, more time to accept the loss too.

Related, more general version of the question:

bought Ṁ14 NO

"if Haley says he" — she?

I will be so angry if Nikki Haley pivots AGAIN and ends up endorsing Trump

bought Ṁ10 NO

How about a never-Trumper 3rd party republican - Liz Cheney?

bought Ṁ100 NO
bought Ṁ10 NO at 39%

@MarkHamill Oooo this could set up endorsements from Christie and other never trumpers

predicts NO

I just don’t understand why this market is so high. Nikki Haley will always be “Miss birdbrain” to Donald Trump.

If Trump loses the general election, the GOP will start to look forward to 2028 and pivot away from MAGA. She will now have to think about her future.

@Marq Exactly, and any future she may have in the Republican party would require not alienating Trump’s voter base. Which to me plays in favor of a party loyalty endorsement.

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