Will more than 2 World Cup matches be decided by penalty kicks? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2023

2022 FIFA World Cup

Will more than 2 World Cup matches be decided by penalty kicks?

88%

chance

Will >2 matches during the elimination round at the Qatar World Cup be decided by penalty kicks due to a tie at the end of regulation and overtime.

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There have been two already, so just one of these have to happen:

@egroj probability of none of those above markets happening is 7.4% so either one or multiple of those are overestimated, or this market is underestimated

Manifold DreamBot

Will more than 2 World Cup matches be decided by penalty kicks?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

bought Ṁ10 NO from 90% to 88%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 91% to 90%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 92% to 91%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ83/Ṁ100 YES at 92% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ150 YES from 89% to 91%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 89%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 90% to 89%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 90%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 90%

sold Ṁ16 YES at 90%

Eduardo Coltre Ferraciolli

bought Ṁ10 YES at 90%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 90%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ35/Ṁ100 YES at 90% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ20 YES at 89%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 92% to 89%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 92%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 97% to 91%

bought Ṁ2 NO at 97%

bought Ṁ2 NO at 97%

bought Ṁ2 NO at 97%

bought Ṁ2 NO at 97%

bought Ṁ2 NO at 97%

bought Ṁ2 NO at 97%

sold Ṁ72 YES from 98% to 97%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 98%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 98%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 98%

filled limit order Ṁ200/Ṁ200 YES at 97%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 97%

bought Ṁ100 YES at 97%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 97%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 96%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ8 NO at 96%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ26/Ṁ100 NO at 97% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ2,650 YES from 78% to 98.6%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 NO at 78% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ210 YES from 61% to 80%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 61%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 62% to 59%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 65% to 62%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 YES at 65% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ105 YES from 76% to 63%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 75% to 76%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ28/Ṁ100 YES at 75% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ50 NO from 88% to 71%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 87% to 88%

bought Ṁ65 YES from 83% to 87%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 NO at 83% (cancelled)

William Hargraves (bot)

bought Ṁ10 NO from 88% to 84%

bought Ṁ30 YES from 86% to 88%