There are currently more than 200 million Chinese citizens under some form of lockdown due to detection of locally transmitted Covid cases. This includes thousands currently forbidden from leaving Shanghai Disneyland until they have three consecutive negative tests.
This markets resolves YES if at least 100 million Chinese citizens are held under lockdown between today and the end of 2022. They do not need to be the same 100 million, just a total of 100 million combined.
Additional resolution criteria to follow. I am very much willing to provide large tips to whomever points me to the best data source to use for the official resolution, or suggests the best way to approximate if/when the 100 million threshold is passed.
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This seems likely to be very hard to resolve, given the granularity and local government responsibility for the lockdown measures. Perhaps a market limited to an economically important region or based on tests (which are somewhat related, but which governments are more likely to brag about) would be better?
