Resolves YES if by anytime prior to election day 2024 Mike Pence endorses or says he intends to vote for Donald Trump. Resolves NO if Pence says he will not endorse Trump or remains neutral.
I briefly sold off everything before realizing that Pence is likely going to lose and then end up in the Cruz Box with Ted "Not The Zodiac" Cruz
Imagine him being asked during a debate whether he will endorse the GOP candidate even if it’s Donald Trump? I don’t think he will be willing to say in that forum that he wouldn’t support Trump and would likely demur with a general statement about “intending to vote for the GOP nominee” without directly addressing Trump by name. That would be Pence trying to have it both ways, so should such an exchange resolve this market YES? Trying to get out in front of an obvious potential future scenario and get market feedback.
@BTE I think if Pence is asked 'will/do you endorse Trump?' and he says 'I will vote for him' and refuses to use the word endorse we'd recognise that he wasn't endorsing, so this kind of more general demurring should be treated the same way (ie NO)
@JoshuaWilkes "... YES if [...] Mike Pence endorses or says he intends to vote for Donald Trump..."
It is literally in the description that the market resolves yes if he says he votes for Trump.
@JoshuaWilkes I agree. But with the qualification that if Trump is the nominee and Pence says he intends to vote for the nominee without mentioning Trump by name that would resolve YES because it’s no longer hypothetical. Make sense?
@AlexbGoode sorry, I missed that. If it's in the description then that's obviously how it should resolve (even though I personally think that saying you will vote for someone is not the same as an endorsement)
I think according to the description if Pence says he will vote for any Republican nominee this question should resolve YES
I would interpret edge cases in the spirit of the market title. A indirect answer is certainly no endorsement.
@BTE Seems like endorsing might even be a requirement for the first debate: https://twitter.com/akarl_smith/status/1664702002876563458?s=20
@DanMan314 So interesting!! This is kinda what I was expecting, but not so formalized.
@DanMan314 This might keep Trump from participating if he hasn’t already.
There’s a saying in Pence’s hometown: Fool me once, shame on you. Incite murderous rioters, probably no endorsement from me.
If trump is not the nominee does this resolve NO or NA?
@Fion Doesn't matter. The genius move for Trump would be to find someone to run with as the VP. That would give him hypothetically 12 more years of potential immunity and end all of his legal trouble. I can't see how he makes that happen at the top of the ticket, but can anyone beat him and the Mayor of Miami? Or him and Nikki Haley? Why run other than for the immunity, honestly?? He doesn't even bother to do the job when he has it.
@Fion I bet you Desantis has already thought of this.
@BTE I appreciate your comment but I'd still be grateful if you'd clarify how you'll resolve.
Suppose Desantis is the GOP nominee, and somebody else (not Trump) is the VP and Pence endorses that ticket. Does this market resolve NO?
Also, if the ticket is Desantis/Trump and Pence endorses that ticket, does the market resolve YES? (or does Pence need to endorse trump for president?)
@Fion I said it “doesn’t matter”, sorry I should have been much more clear before launching into my tangent. The first example would resolve NO because Trump isn’t on the ticket. Since you vote for president and vice president as a ticket it also doesn’t matter if he is the VP nominee, that would resolve YES.
I have dozens of these endorsement markets and they are all simply yes if it happens no if it doesn’t. I don’t really like making markets that require a trigger like “if trump is the nominee”. Don’t really bet on them either. Personal preference.
Also note I said he could endorse OR say he “intends to vote for” which would be the most Mike Pence move ever.
If Trump is the nominee, every single member of the GOP except Mitt Romney will endorse him, Pence included.
@Gen HAHA! He might play one on TV, but I live in Indiana (unfortunately) and there is none of that going on here.
@BTE See what it says for my bet?? I am betting the farm in one minute apparently.
@Gen YES!! You saw it too!!