Resolves YES if by anytime prior to election day 2024 Mike Pence endorses or says he intends to vote for Donald Trump. Resolves NO if Pence says he will not endorse Trump or remains neutral.
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Below is reporting on the first GOP debate last summer >> Former President Donald Trump, who has been indicted four different times this year, did not participate in Wednesday's GOP debate — but he was a topic of discussion among the eight other candidates who took the stage. "You all signed a pledge to support the Republican nominee," said moderator Brett Baier. "If former President Trump is convicted in a court of law, would you still support him as your party's choice? Please raise your hand if you would." Here's how they answered: ... Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence raised their hands, saying they would support Trump as the party's nominee – even if he was convicted.
As you can see, Pence has already said unambiguously that he will endorse Trump even if he is convicted in one of his trials before the election. This should not be surprising at all since Pence is no moral authority and gets way too much credit for not agreeing to commit treason.
@10thOfficial I won’t resolve this because of my position, but to whoever comes to decide it - check out the links below first!
Not clear if this counts as an endorsement, but it's a far cry from his previous position of staying out of the race entirely.
Trump "couldn't care less" that Pence is not endorsing him
https://www.axios.com/2024/03/19/trump-pence-2024-endorsement-republicans-jan-6
@JimAusman close date is Nov 9, if he endorses before that date: close early. if not: wait for that date. I think the English above is pretty clear and unambiguous
@FranklinBaldo The criteria are self-contradictory though. It also says:
“Resolves YES if by anytime prior to election day 2024 Mike Pence endorses or says he intends to vote for Donald Trump”,
which could still happen
@JimHays it says so for the YES option. Then there's a full stop. Then it doesn't say so for the NO option, so we have to wait for market closure
I think a plain reading of the description is that it resolves immediately based on whichever of the three things happens first, or defaults to No if he remains neutral.
So if one of the yes conditions had happened first but then he changed his mind, this would have resolved Yes already. But now that the No condition has happened, it should immediately resolve No.
@JimAusman That wasn't an endorsement though, that was promising that he /would/ support trump in the future. He seems to be breaking that promise now.
I've got no stake here so don't mind much personally, I just think the criteria are pretty clear that it'd resolve early if he actually endorsed or promised to not endorse.
@Joshua the first sentence, for resolving YES, has "by anytime prior to election day 2024," which could support an early resolution, but there's no such phrasing in the second sentence regarding a NO resolution. Early resolution seems premature to me since there's a good chance that both the YES and NO criteria are met. At least, I've been betting primarily for the case that Pence will say he intends to vote for Trump—which still seems likely to me.
@Jacy Yeah, the first sentence defines the resolution here, imo. The second is for clarification. (And doesn't address the "I don't endorse him, but I will vote for him" situation)
Pence declines to endorse Trump, won't back Biden
https://www.foxnews.com/media/pence-declines-to-endorse-trump-wont-back-biden
Just pointing out that he's treating the physical vote and the endorsement separate.
@BTE While I agree with you and that he'll probably change his mind before election day; your resolution criteria clearly state "resolves NO if Pence says he will not endorse Trump or remains neutral."
i.e. this market resolves NO.