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Calibration is a pretty bad metric unless you're also sorting by a lot of other metrics. And my understanding is that the way that manifold in particular calculates calibration for individual users also makes it a weird thing to compete on.

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Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?

Will Manifold add a Timeline-like question type by the end of 2025?

50% chance

Will Manifold bring back calibration before LLMs are smart enough to provide a better calibration graph?

38% chance

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