🏅 Top traders

He is still creating markets, so this is probably going to resolve to NO.

Manifold is nothing without its top market creators

The question is too vague so I won't bet but i think he probably won't

They special-case allowed BTE to continue making markets even if his balance is negative. I think he's going to continue enjoying the site.

I like you and I hope you stay!!

@Soli I am not here to make profit and this trade should be more as manifesting than anything else

Why would you lose interest in manifold if you launch a competitor? Arguably you should be more interested if this becomes a main competitor of yours ?

@Lorenzo this is a good question - how does "interest" define? given recent comments, losing interest in betting seems likely. but interest in what's going on here would likely be pretty high if you're launching a competitor?
so is this a matter of losing interest in participation or losing interest full stop?

@BTE if you lose interest, who will resolve the market?

@JCE The moderators will, just like they do for every other abandoned market.

@IsaacKing Tongue in cheek but point taken.

@JCE This might be the first market I created I haven’t bet on so don’t take that as indication of lost interest. But I will say the manifold competitor project is heating up. That is the most likely reason I would lose interest, if I had my own prediction market.

@BTE I bet YES big.

@BTE You contribute so much to this community (making interesting markets, referring tons of new users, winning tournaments, providing feedback on how Manifold can do better). It's your call, of course, but I personally hope you stay at Manifold. It wouldn't be the same without people like you!

There was a time when every time a tournament ended, it was, "Oh, time to Paypal Brian his winnings again." I hope you keep going with prediction markets, whether that's here or at a new platform you start!

Whatever the missing criteria is for being interested, I don’t think you can attempt to build a competitor to Manifold and not be deeply interested/concerned with Manifold while doing so.

https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-i-be-part-of-a-team-that-launc?r=Y2FweWJhcmE

Will I be part of a team that launches a competitor to Manifold by the end of 2023?

43% chance. 1. There is a publicly-accessible website 2. Which I had/have a hand in creating/running 3. Where anyone can sign up for an account 4. And, having signed up, can create something-analogous-to-Manifold-questions 5. And make predictions on "questions" they or others create 6. Such that correct and incorrect predictions have some lasting impact on something in their account similar to Manifold's mana balance (e.g. a balance, reputation tracker, etc).

@capybara you can be interested in the idea, and lose interest in a particular implementation of the idea

@capybara Hmm, there's also the alternative interpretation of "he got tired of Manifold and went to build a competitor instead".

@BTE can we get some clarification?

@IsaacKing Imagine not keeping up to date with every detail of your main competitor.

@capybara Keeping track out of necessity and out of interest are different things

@firstuserhere I agree that we need a definition for “interest”.

@capybara This is a good question but I am falling asleep so I will need to answer you tomorrow.

My take is that OP is deeply deeply interested. To such an extent that he has far greater sensitivity to the aspects that other users aren’t even aware of. So much does he care that he is willing to dedicate time and money to improve. If Manifold addressed all of what ever issues he has, then I imagine he would continue using Manifold.

@BTE Any news?