Will Gavin Newsom run for president in 2024?

2024 US Presidential Election•2024 DNC Primaries

351

Ṁ37K

Ṁ818

Aug 1

1.8%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if Newsom formally announces he is a candidate in the 2024 primary and files the necessary paperwork to get on the primary ballot. Presumably this will need to happen by next July at the absolute latest. Resolves NO if he does not run.

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Why is Gavin Newsom setting up debates with RDS if he isn't a candidate?

predicts NO

@MP I think he’s angling for the “what if Biden dies” play, plus setting up for 2028. I’m sure he has presidential ambitions, but I don’t think he’s trying to actually go against Biden.

bought Ṁ25 of NO

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Newsom says we won't run in 2024.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3751158-newsom-says-he-wont-run-for-president-in-2024-even-if-biden-doesnt-seek-reelection/

predicts YES

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/22/us/gavin-newsom-vetoes-drug-injection-sites.html

Strongest evidence yet he is in…

bought Ṁ10 of NO

85% is overestimates by a lot the likelihood of Biden not running! Imagine the conditional probability of Biden not running and Gavin running!

predicts YES

@MP I think Gavin is the only candidate who would challenge Biden one on one. This is only likely if it looks inevitable Biden would face a rematch with Trump.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I think chances are more like 40%, so taking advantage of a quick arbitrage opportunity here. I think there's still a strong chance Biden gives it another go, and if not Biden, Kamala. I don't think he'd run against an (sorta-)incumbent.

predicts NO

@EliGaultney I don't think there's a presidential-ambition-holding Democrat in the US who would let Kamala's presence in the race prevent them from declaring candidacy. Biden, sure (if he runs). But if he decides not to run, no way does anyone make way for Kamala. She's less popular than Biden, even (somehow).

predicts NO

@EliGaultney @MattP Biden has setup the DNC (as its reigning leader) to make it almost impossible for anyone to challenge him after a certain point that is rapidly approaching. He has gone so far as to formally rule out any debates and even the pretense of the potential for a competition, which is actually the reason I think Newsom will be compelled to get in to the race early. He is the only contender with the balls to tell Biden he needs to brace for a primary war or step aside and let the next generation duke it out. He can use his current campaign for Governor to launch his national profile, which he has already done with campaign spots airing in FL and TX. There is absolutely no reason to do that unless you are challenging the party's national leadership.

predicts NO

@BTE @MattP Great points, both of you.