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MANIFOLD
Will five new countries begin settling trade with China in Yuan instead of dollars by the end of 2023?
33
Ṁ610Ṁ2.7k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Argentina and Saudi Arabia won't count.

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Have you put more thought into how you will resolve this?

Many countries already settle some of their trade using RMB. How would this resolve for such cases?

predictedYES

@Akzzz123 This is for new countries. I believe Saudi Arabia is the first new country and why I created this question. I also think there is talk of the others BRICS also moving this direction. Any previous countries do not count, though I don’t think there are many.

predictedYES

@Akzzz123 I am not disputing that. That is why I said it inspired this question, so obviously wouldn’t count. Sorry should have been more clear. Xi is pushing all trade partners to do this now. I will dig into what has happened since this was created.

predictedYES

@Akzzz123 my bad for referring to Saudi as a “new” one.

predictedYES

@BTE I also excluded Argentina in the description

predictedNO

@BTE Sure, what I mean to say is that many countries have some level of Yuan-denominated trade with China, so these countries would not count and this market would trivially resolve as NO. But I am sure that wasn't your intention when you asked this question.

predictedYES

@Akzzz123 Actually it looks like those are both deals with Russia. Damn this question got complicated quickly.

predictedNO

@BTE And that looks like only for a particular commodity and such one off deals already happen and are usually not reported as seen from the IMF report which tracks Swift payment involving RMB between China and other countries.