Will Donald Trump be formally exonerated of any crimes for which there is currently a grand jury by end of 2023?
31
328
610
resolved Sep 8
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if any prosector or special counsel currently investigating Trump with an open grand jury closes said grand jury and issues a report stating that the grand jury voted against indicting him. This would mean the prosecutor didn't mean the low bar of "probable cause" to suspect a crime was committed. Grand juries also need not be unanimous, but require only a supramajority in most jurisdictions, so by declining to indict a grand jury would effectively be exonerating Trump.

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predicted NO

@BTE can this resolve now?

would effectively be exonerating Trump

Lol. Nothing a grand jury does could be considered "formal" exoneration. Comparing Grand Juries to trial juries is *very* apples to oranges. You can maybe infer probabilistic correlation, which is interesting but does not in any way reflect the title of this market.

Even if you were to indulge in a comparison anyway, it still doesn't hold. The trial-jury equivalent of a grand jury in which there was not unanimous agreement would likely be a hung jury (provided at least one vote to indict/convict). Which also definitely doesn't qualify as "formally exonerated". And again, the entire comparison is deeply silly from a legal perspective and not on the same continent as "formal".

I'm going to avoid betting on this market because the terms seem so confused I have no confidence in this having a clear cut resolution.

@Jai Now that every open grand jury has indicted him already you are absolutely correct. That is actually a pretty clean resolution. The only way for it to resolve yes was for a known grand jury to decide not to bring indictments. That is now impossible so should resolve NO, right??

bought Ṁ100 of NO

That seems correct to me.

predicted NO

Those are the 4 grand juries known and all of them indicted. Even if a new grand jury forms, it won't count bc this question doesn't cover it.

predicted NO

@BTE do you intend to keep this open until end of the year or resolve now?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Joshua I will resolve tonight unless someone makes a compelling argument that it should remain open.

@BTE The description doesn't specify NO criteria, and the YES criteria doesn't seem exhaustive. It's possible, albeit very unlikely, that charges could be dismissed, withdrawn, result in a trial where Trump is found innocent on one or more counts, or even result in a conviction-that-is-subsequently-overturned (e.g. the actual legal definition of "exonerated").

I don't know which if any of these would count as "exoneration" for purposes of this market, up to and including actual exoneration.

This is all extremely unlikely, especially by the end of this year, but not actually impossible. I don't think the market can actually be closed at the moment. If it does close, it would render the name of this market outright false.

predicted NO

@BTE By the description I agree with NO. The title is misleading, though.

predicted NO

Yeah the title threw me off too but the description seems super clear to me. We know all the grand juries that were considering indictment, and none of them did.

If Trump is indicted on 33 of 34, but effectively exonerated on 1 of 34, how does this resolve?

bought Ṁ75 of YES

Numerous sufficient causal paths all suffice, dearies.