Resolves YES if any prosector or special counsel currently investigating Trump with an open grand jury closes said grand jury and issues a report stating that the grand jury voted against indicting him. This would mean the prosecutor didn't mean the low bar of "probable cause" to suspect a crime was committed. Grand juries also need not be unanimous, but require only a supramajority in most jurisdictions, so by declining to indict a grand jury would effectively be exonerating Trump.
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would effectively be exonerating Trump
Lol. Nothing a grand jury does could be considered "formal" exoneration. Comparing Grand Juries to trial juries is *very* apples to oranges. You can maybe infer probabilistic correlation, which is interesting but does not in any way reflect the title of this market.
Even if you were to indulge in a comparison anyway, it still doesn't hold. The trial-jury equivalent of a grand jury in which there was not unanimous agreement would likely be a hung jury (provided at least one vote to indict/convict). Which also definitely doesn't qualify as "formally exonerated". And again, the entire comparison is deeply silly from a legal perspective and not on the same continent as "formal".
I'm going to avoid betting on this market because the terms seem so confused I have no confidence in this having a clear cut resolution.
@Jai Now that every open grand jury has indicted him already you are absolutely correct. That is actually a pretty clean resolution. The only way for it to resolve yes was for a known grand jury to decide not to bring indictments. That is now impossible so should resolve NO, right??
@Joshua I will resolve tonight unless someone makes a compelling argument that it should remain open.
@BTE The description doesn't specify NO criteria, and the YES criteria doesn't seem exhaustive. It's possible, albeit very unlikely, that charges could be dismissed, withdrawn, result in a trial where Trump is found innocent on one or more counts, or even result in a conviction-that-is-subsequently-overturned (e.g. the actual legal definition of "exonerated").
I don't know which if any of these would count as "exoneration" for purposes of this market, up to and including actual exoneration.
This is all extremely unlikely, especially by the end of this year, but not actually impossible. I don't think the market can actually be closed at the moment. If it does close, it would render the name of this market outright false.