Will Donald Trump be convicted of obstruction of justice in the documents case?
58
13k
2025
69%
chance

Guilty verdict on any of the existing obstruction charges.

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What if he preemptively pardons himself? No conviction right?

How does this resolve if he is convicted by a lower court, but the conviction is overturned at a higher court?

If he becomes president and pardons himself or gets his VP to pardon him after stepping down, how will this resolve?

@ErichLuepke A pardon isn't a conviction. A pardon before conviction probably makes the case moot, or makes the prosecutor stop the case. But self pardons may not be constitutional.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall Accepting a pardon is an admission of guilt and you forfeit your 5th amendment rights against self incrimination.

predicts NO

@BTE yes, but it didn't do Nixon any harm.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall True a prospective pardon for all possible federal crimes wouldn’t be the same. Nixon was never indicted at least publicly. Trump has been so much different I think.

predicts NO

@BTE I would bet that the Trump pardon will be closely modeled in the Nixon pardon

There are paths to Trump getting off (many of them go through Judge Cannon), but this bet is also partly a hedge/arbitrage of this espionage act market, which for some reason is lower than this one, even though the document retention charges seem easier to prove than the obstruction ones.

predicts YES

@PeterBorah You are correct, he needs a corrupt and biased judge to completely destroy her career in order for him to get bailed out on these 37 charges. Judges cannot make charges go away like a jury can however, so that relief will be only temporary. Doesn't even matter because Fani Willis in Fulton County however is going to torch him and all of his associates like she does the gangs in Atlanta using the RICO Act. Check it out, it is her jam and she uses it with great effect against a lot scarier people that Trump. Ain't no judge or friendly jury to bail him out in Fulton County.

Hung jury is the only hope Trump has of not being convicted.

@BTE biased jury, biased judge, or presidential pardon.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall Prospective pardon? Jury bias is possible sometimes but he is not even pretending he didn’t commit the crime. His only argument is he shouldn’t be indicted for it. A jury isn’t coming back not guilty on all 37 counts. No chance.

predicts NO

@BTE yeah, pardons can be issued prior to conviction, and with a cooperative judge Trump can run out the clock till the election.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall Right like Nixon. But are you saying Trump will be able to pardon himself?? Cause he has to win first and that is absolutely not happening. He isn’t running against the only bigger loser than him, Hillary. Biden would beat him in a coma. Kamala would have struggled until the indictments but she is a stone cold prosecutor who will tear him to pieces if she is the top of the ticket because he won’t have to discipline not to talk about his case. He will make her look so much better than she is. And neither of them are pardoning him. His only chance at a pardon is if he drops out and one of the other Republicans win. I have seen nothing that indicates trump can win a general election ever again. 100mm people will come out to vote against him next time.

predicts NO

@BTE the Trump 2024 markets are still at 20-30%, and Republican 2024 at 40-50%. I know you have NO shares in those markets though!

predicts YES

If you can’t win as the incumbent president it’s crazy to think you can make a comeback or that it’s even desirable considering he could only serve another four years is nuts. It’s so stupid. But not surprising.

@BTE I wouldn't have nominated McCain, Clinton, Trump, or Biden, so I guess I'm not as smart as US voters.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall The McCain and Clinton voters weren’t so smart after all.

@BTE Does a hung jury resolve NO rather than N/A or waiting for a retrial?

predicts YES

@NiallWeaver Good question. That would resolve NO. This market is for this trial only. I will clarify in description.