🏅 Top traders

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-israel-starting-lose-support-over-indiscriminate-bombing-gaza-2023-12-12/

@KevinMason @94% with some media already poking at the take responsibility once the current situation is over thing line that he keeps using, I think this market is at least over confident.

@KevinMason given the political strength and coalition unity, I'll assume the other 6% are potential health issues that'll unqualify him

See also https://manifold.markets/kagan/will-benjamin-netanyahu-remain-prim

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister through the end of 2023?

80% chance. Another member of Knesset must assume the post of Prime Minister for Netanyahu to be considered officially ousted. Market resolves upon this realization, or on Jan. 1, 2024 (Israel time).

NA if he gets himself killed or No?

@ICRainbow No

https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/editorial/2023-10-08/ty-article-opinion/netanyahu-bears-responsibility/0000018b-0b9d-d8fc-adff-6bfd1c880000

Netanyahu bears responsibility | Editorial

The Disaster That Befell Israel on the Holiday of Simchat Torah Is the Clear Responsibility of One Person: Benjamin Netanyahu. The Prime Minister, Who Has Pride

What's the rationale? A man who fails to protect Israel is more likely to remain in power?

In times of crisis there is no room for partisan bickering. Israelis are quite good at putting divisions aside in this sort of situation and working together to face the challenge. Even those who really despise Netanyahu are going to wait until the current situation is over—and the year-end draws closer by the day.

@MP Look at Bush's approval rating after 911 to see how unifying being attacked can be

@MP also just in operational terms, they're not going to hold an election during this mess

@zzq I think this has not aged well. The voices against Netanyahu have only grown louder and his government is overwhelmingly blamed for the attacks on 10/7. The Israeli business community came out strongly in favor of dissolving the government over the weekend.

It takes ~3 months from when a new election is called until the election is held, and then some time after that to form a new coalition, during which time the previous PM remains in that role. Given that the year ends in 2 months, the only real chance this market has to resolve YES is if Netanyahu dies or voluntarily resigns. Not impossible, but fairly unlikely.

Beyond that, I do in fact still think that what I wrote applies; that the country is focused on the war and will wait with the politicking until that's over, or at least for a few months, if this ends up dragging on. If you disagree, I've created a market asking if the Knesset will call another election by year-end:

He did not perform well on Meet The Press today.