Will anyone be arrested for performing in a drag show in the US during 2023?
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resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO

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Given that someone is arrested while/before/after performing in a drag show, what has to be true for it to count as being arrested for the performance?

bought Ṁ30 NO at 17%
bought Ṁ10 of YES

Why the corrrection?

predicted NO

@CodeandSolder Because the only law that threatened such action was declared unconstitutional yesterday by federal court. Will take a long time to litigate but probably not happening for awhile if ever.

predicted YES

@BTE Wait, really? I haven't heard about that. District court of appeals, I assume?

bought Ṁ22 of NO

@BTE Oh, wow. That gives me some hope that the Supreme Court might rule against anti-trans laws, too. I'm not a fan of Gorsuch or Roberts, but I can easily imagine both of them interpreting the Constitution in a similar way to that judge.

sold Ṁ7 of NO

I expect some degree of intentional civil disobedience by queer people with the aim of being arrested, to protest such laws / force them to go to the supreme court, which will almost certainly have to strike them down

@noumena Surely if they get arrested and then the court rules in your favor, that's still a yes.

predicted YES

@LucaMasters My thinking too, have money on yes

@noumena Ah, I saw the "NO" next to your comment and missed that it was a sold no.

It's more likely that these laws are used to target trans individuals or crossdressers than someone "in a drag show". Does this resolve yes if these laws are used to arrest anyone, or only if they participated in a drag show?

I'm guessing it would resolve no in that case.

How fun it would be if it were George Santos?

bought Ṁ50 of NO

I can’t see drag shows being illegal, so there would have to be a different reason for any arrest, right?

predicted NO

@Gen For example, say a bunch of people are participating in a drag show at an illegal location - would this resolve yes?

Or, would it be “they’re arrested for being in Area 51, not because it was a drag show”

@Gen They are in fact now illegal in several states to perform in public. Pending laws likely to pass criminalizing it in 14 states I believe.

predicted NO

@BTE Lmao America be wild

predicted NO

Land of the free 😭 👍

@BTE wait seriously?

predicted YES

@DesTiny @Gen Tennessee is trying to ban it