Will Alec Baldwin be convicted of the charges related to the shooting death on the set of his film ‘Rust’?
resolved Apr 20

conviction of any crime and guilty pleas count for YES resolution

Jan 19, 11:32am: Will Alec Baldwin be convicted of the charges related to the shooting death on the set of his film? → Will Alec Baldwin be convicted of the charges related to the shooting death on the set of his film ‘Rust’?

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bought Ṁ1,500 of NO

Charges dropped

predicted YES

@BTE Without prejudice to them being refiled though. Prosecutor said they couldn't proceed on the current timetable but explicitly raised the possibility of refiling.


Understand why you resolved, but there's an argument that this was premature. The possibility of a mod makes a manslaughter conviction unlikely but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a negligent use of gun conviction down the road.

predicted NO
predicted NO

@Jason I will create a new question if refiled. Thanks for the heads up!

bought Ṁ180 of NO

After admitting that a gun enhancement on his charges was filed incorrectly, Special Prosecutor Reeb, who I previously referred to as a dumbass, has now stepped down from her role as prosecutor.


This might make it actually more likely that he is convicted because the stupidest prosecutor is now off the case. But Baldwin has great lawyers, the same ones who just helped Musk beat his last case, and they are extremely competent and aggressive, while the prosecutorial side has been making boneheaded errors. So I'm back in this market for NO.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@ForrestTaylor Buying more YES. My guess is that Reeb was an impediment to a sensible resolution of this case, which is probably a plea deal for a misdemeanor. Given that the resolver has stated a plea/conviction for any crime is YES, I think that increases YES odds.

Does the charge of conviction have to be manslaughter, or will conviction of a lesser offense count?

Just saw the answer downthread - sorry!

predicted NO

Will you count a guilty plea as conviction?

predicted NO

@NicoDelon Yes sir

predicted NO

@BTE But I suppose a settlement without admission of guilt would not count. I haven’t seen the charges but my bet is on he settles.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon It’s not a civil case though. Is involuntary manslaughter like rape where you can buy off your victim and they can drop the charges?? I don’t think it is but I am not sure.

predicted NO

@BTE Buying off Hutchins at this point would be quite the feat.

predicted NO

@EdwardKmett Right!! Seems not likely. I just think the prosecutor is grandstanding and is gonna look bad when he is acquitted.

predicted NO

@BTE A newly minted Republican state legislator has a hate boner for Alec Baldwin? Say it ain't so. The main quirk is that they currently have the legal authority to go after him, so of course they are going to er.. take a shot at him.

The main thing propping up the odds here are what lesser charges he might get hit with as the prosecutor retreats from the bailey to the motte.

predicted NO

@BTE you’re right. I didn’t mean buying himself out. More like charges dropped or lessened and settlement with the civil parties on the side.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@EdwardKmett Conviction for negligent use of a firearm seems likely if the jury accepts that he pulled the trigger. His own interview shows he clearly knew never to do that with a gun pointed at someone.

predicted YES

@SuperTaxGenius Uphill battle for the prosecution, but apparently there had been prior incidents on set and it was extremely improper for anyone other than the armorer to be handing Baldwin the gun. If the prosecution can prove Baldwin knew all that, they have a chance on the top count. Pulling the trigger on a gun pointed at someone when you know proper procedures weren't followed and there had been other armorer lapses is probably reckless in my book.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

"Andrea Reeb, a special prosecutor on the case, cited a “pattern of criminal disregard for safety” on the film set.

“If any one of these three people — Alec Baldwin, Hannah Gutierrez-Reed or David Halls — had done their job, Halyna Hutchins would be alive today. It’s that simple,” said Reeb, also a newly sworn Republican state legislator."

"Newly sworn Republican state legislator" = huge red flag in my book. I looked at her campaign website and it contains multiple misspellings like "our" instead of "are". Conclusion: this prosecutor is a dumbass and this is a political stunt.

predicted YES

Some questions:

  1. According to the article I shared, they’re going for involuntary manslaughter. Does a conviction have to be for that specific crime or would any conviction on a lesser or greater charge qualify?

  2. Does a guilty plea deal qualify?

predicted NO

@MattCWilson Any crime. And yes.

bought Ṁ100 of YES
predicted NO

@MattCWilson I literally stopped while walking my dogs because I knew someone else would have the same idea and I had a feeling this market will probably generate a 1000 unique traders by the time the trial is over! Looks like a good hunch. Create derivatives!!