BTE avatar
BTE
closes Jan 1, 2025
Will Alec Baldwin be convicted of the charges related to the shooting death on the set of his film ‘Rust’?
29%
chance

Developing...

Jan 19, 11:32am: Will Alec Baldwin be convicted of the charges related to the shooting death on the set of his film? → Will Alec Baldwin be convicted of the charges related to the shooting death on the set of his film ‘Rust’?

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NicoDelon avatar
Nicolas Delon
is predicting NO at 24%

Will you count a guilty plea as conviction?

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting NO at 24%

@NicoDelon Yes sir

NicoDelon avatar
Nicolas Delon
is predicting NO at 24%

@BTE But I suppose a settlement without admission of guilt would not count. I haven’t seen the charges but my bet is on he settles.

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting NO at 24%

@NicoDelon It’s not a civil case though. Is involuntary manslaughter like rape where you can buy off your victim and they can drop the charges?? I don’t think it is but I am not sure.

EdwardKmett avatar
Edward Kmett
is predicting NO at 24%

@BTE Buying off Hutchins at this point would be quite the feat.

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting NO at 24%

@EdwardKmett Right!! Seems not likely. I just think the prosecutor is grandstanding and is gonna look bad when he is acquitted.

EdwardKmett avatar
Edward Kmett
is predicting NO at 24%

@BTE A newly minted Republican state legislator has a hate boner for Alec Baldwin? Say it ain't so. The main quirk is that they currently have the legal authority to go after him, so of course they are going to er.. take a shot at him.

The main thing propping up the odds here are what lesser charges he might get hit with as the prosecutor retreats from the bailey to the motte.

NicoDelon avatar
Nicolas Delon
is predicting NO at 24%

@BTE you’re right. I didn’t mean buying himself out. More like charges dropped or lessened and settlement with the civil parties on the side.

ForrestTaylor avatar
Forrest Taylor
bought Ṁ50 of NO

"Andrea Reeb, a special prosecutor on the case, cited a “pattern of criminal disregard for safety” on the film set.

“If any one of these three people — Alec Baldwin, Hannah Gutierrez-Reed or David Halls — had done their job, Halyna Hutchins would be alive today. It’s that simple,” said Reeb, also a newly sworn Republican state legislator."

"Newly sworn Republican state legislator" = huge red flag in my book. I looked at her campaign website and it contains multiple misspellings like "our" instead of "are". Conclusion: this prosecutor is a dumbass and this is a political stunt.

MattCWilson avatar
Matt C. Wilson
is predicting YES at 37%

Some questions:

  1. According to the article I shared, they’re going for involuntary manslaughter. Does a conviction have to be for that specific crime or would any conviction on a lesser or greater charge qualify?

  2. Does a guilty plea deal qualify?

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting NO at 26%

@MattCWilson Any crime. And yes.

MattCWilson avatar
Matt C. Wilson
bought Ṁ100 of YES
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting NO at 26%

@MattCWilson I literally stopped while walking my dogs because I knew someone else would have the same idea and I had a feeling this market will probably generate a 1000 unique traders by the time the trial is over! Looks like a good hunch. Create derivatives!!