Please resolve.
Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida last night as a Category 4 storm, bringing 140 mph winds to the state's northwest coast. Over 600,000 homes and businesses have already lost power.
Helene hit gulf coast as cat 4.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al09/al092024.update.09270318.shtml?
For bettors... 11am forecast
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Forgot about this market...
Referencing the last seasonal CSU forecast (from a few weeks ago) I'm betting it down:
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-08.pdf
"U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) - 30% (full-season average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville - 38% (full-season average from 1880–2020 is 27%) “
Edit (fixed quote): from my own notebook, for the remainder of season, historically suggests above 20% for a landfalling major hurricane in FL after August. Given the next TC genesis won’t likely occur until September, lower than 40% seems reasonable and above 20% due to the above average seasonal forecast.
I expect rest of September to be a bust (which is good news). Despite that, conditioning on September 7+ I get 17% historically (1991-2023 baseline).
@datachef Not a meteorologist by long shot… you can also look at the intensity market… to get some ideas but the NHC forecast is on the low end of the model s