@mods Will need to resolve this.

Please resolve.

Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida last night as a Category 4 storm, bringing 140 mph winds to the state's northwest coast. Over 600,000 homes and businesses have already lost power.

Helene hit gulf coast as cat 4.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al09/al092024.update.09270318.shtml?

For bettors... 11am forecast

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 19.5N  84.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 20.3N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 21.5N  86.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 23.2N  86.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 25.9N  85.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 29.7N  84.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 33.9N  83.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 96H  28/1200Z 39.7N  86.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Forgot about this market...

Referencing the last seasonal CSU forecast (from a few weeks ago) I'm betting it down:

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-08.pdf

"U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) - 30% (full-season average from 1880–2020 is 21%)

Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville - 38% (full-season average from 1880–2020 is 27%) “

Edit (fixed quote): from my own notebook, for the remainder of season, historically suggests above 20% for a landfalling major hurricane in FL after August. Given the next TC genesis won’t likely occur until September, lower than 40% seems reasonable and above 20% due to the above average seasonal forecast.

I expect rest of September to be a bust (which is good news). Despite that, conditioning on September 7+ I get 17% historically (1991-2023 baseline).

@parhizj what’s the updated forecast resident meteorologist guy?!

@datachef Not a meteorologist by long shot… you can also look at the intensity market… to get some ideas but the NHC forecast is on the low end of the model s

Arbitrage possibility:
Prob in Florida 61% as above
but only 55% for gulf coast?

The AI banner is quite interesting .. made some of the clouds from this satellite perspective appear as if were looking at them from the ground towards the horizon.