Resolution criteria same as @Joshua market for 2023.
1,000
3.00FAQ:
Why are so many answers getting disqualified? What were they?
They were because a troll (now banned) submitted answers and then edited them to completely different answers, including many duplicates. As a result, those answers had to be disqualified, which means they are guaranteed to resolve NO. (This market type doesn't allow N/A-ing specific answers unfortunately.)
@Panfilo yeah if it's trump I'm screwed because I didn't buy enough early but if it's almost anyone else plausible I'm instantly swimming in mana lol
This feels like such a weird market. I'd give it at least a 40% chance that it won't be a US politics choice, especially as the main two contenders have been chosen before, but the market thinks it's 93% going to be US politics... I've thrown a bit of mana at other options, but none feel right.
Any plausible alternatives outside these choices... malaria vaccine people- GAVI, Professor Adrian Hill, maybe? Geoffrey Hinton might be a good call, as he's won a Nobel Prize and has been outspoken about AI risk.
@JackStennett literally no one knows or cares who Hinton or Hill is. If it's not Trump or Musk, I can imagine it being "MAGA" or something stupid like that though. These people are trying to sell magazines.
@AlQuinn Presidents generally win in their first year of their term, I guess, but they often give it to less predictable choices - AIDS researcher in 1996 (year of Clinton reelection), unknown whistleblowers in 2002, fairly obscure global journalists in 2018 etc.
Just feels weird that there aren't any good examples of this kind of choice in the market.
@JackStennett I think you're VASTLY understating how big 2002 and 2018's stories were, to be honest. 2002 wasn't just unknown whistleblowers, it was the whistleblowers that took down Enron and Worldcom, two massive fraud cases that absolutely defined the year.
As for 2018, I think Jamaal Khashoggi's murder was one of the biggest stories of the year? And the Capital Gazette shooting certainly wasn't a slouch. The "journalism is under attack" narrative was absolutely in play throughout the whole year, as it had been since Trump took office and was vigorously attacking the media.
I'll give you 1996, though. That was a busy news year, and David Ho is absolutely a dark horse candiate. Vital to remember that the Clinton/Dole campaign was famously defined by a perceived lack of difference in the candidates, though!
But this year's biggest stories are all mostly on this list, from what I can see. I can't think of anything without SOME representation on here.
This seems more likely.
He was a competitor for last year but got beaten out by TSwift for the positive vibes. This year the vibes are bad and need a bad dude to match.
He was last TPOTY in 2007, where the article was more favourable to him. Now it’s over a decade later, it can be a better retrospective.
This year it’s even more clear that Russia’s on the ascendency in Ukraine. There’s talk of a deal next year.
Perhaps most importantly, it would be a pointed snub to Trump: rather than honouring him with TPOTY a second time, they give it to the man behind the curtain, as if to say “the jockey, not the horse, wins the prize”.
@OP highly doubt Time will put a genocidaire on the cover. Would be a totally idiotic move on their part.
@OP again, would be totally stupid. Both choices completely immoral and would be terrible optics for the magazine.
@NGK I''ve been bullish on him because I just think he's the only possible #2 pick. Trump being over 70% is reasonable, but Musk should be most of the remaining percent.
@NGK Also good analysis. He might have more intrigue for selling magazines, many offline people still don't know him very well.
@fela musk is currently on the cover so very unlikely they would do that and then have him as POTY like the next week or month. Plus Musk wasn’t very nice about the article they wrote so all signs point to Donald.
@datachef The problem with this line of logic is that Donald Trump is on the cover right now. (This is not the Person of the Year issue.)
@Marnix Yup, I googled it. It does indeed seem too close to the POTY issue but the world is weird so…