Has a Chinese submarine crashed in the Strait of Taiwan?
resolved Jan 1

Xi skipped an important speech this week at the BRIC summit and there are lots of rumors this could be why. Some say the entire Chinese crew was killed. Resolves YES if confirmed true by the end of the year.

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predicted NO

@JoshuaWilkes how would this resolve if a submarine 'crashed' but it wasn't in the Taiwan strait?

predicted YES

@JoshuaWilkes That is an intriguing short piece!! Did it get cut off?? Is that all?!? If they lost a submarine and it is confirmed lost they I think it should resolve YES. Is you lose a submarine maybe they don’t know where it is going which is something I hadn’t considered. What do you think?

predicted NO

@BTE You just need to keep scrolling. FWIW it's not a particularly reputable source.

I would probably feel obliged to resolve NO because the question is quite specific about location

predicted YES

@JoshuaWilkes Fair point. I think you are right. If it isn’t in the Taiwan Straight it will resolve NO.

predicted NO

@BTE that's the article I sent you!

predicted YES

@JoshuaWilkes Haha yes it is.

Heavily discounting this as the Taiwanese claim to not have any evidence in this direction and they have high incentive to notice stuff. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/08/22/2003805127

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