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https://www.eurasiantimes.com/sunk-chinese-nuclear-armed-submarine-could-lead/

Underwater Nuclear Disaster: Why Alleged Sinking Of China’s Nuke Sub Is Bad New For Indo-Pacific Waters

The plot surrounding the alleged sinking of a Chinese nuclear submarine is thickening, with the latest United Kingdom publication contending that the platform went down after getting stuck in the trap laid out for the US submarines. The purported incident, denied vehemently by China, underscores nuclear submarines’ risks. Philippines To Track, Chase & Hunt Chinese […]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/55-chinese-sailors-dead-after-vessel-stuck-in-its-own-trap-report-101696410869532.html

55 Chinese sailors dead after vessel stuck in its own ‘trap’: Report

A leaked intelligence report said captain of Chinese Navy's vessel and 21 other officers were among those dead. | World News

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/did-a-chinese-submarine-suffer-a-se?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

Did a Chinese submarine suffer a serious accident in 2023?

50% chance. Serious accidents would include the submarine sinking, or an incident involving multiple deaths on board. This question will close and resolve in 2025, to allow information to make its way. If an incident takes place after question creation, and before 2024, that would qualify. It's hard to choose appropriate resolution criteria. I will resolve this YES if a reasonable person would deem it more likely than not that this happened. I will not bet on this market.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/pla-submarine-missing-chinas-defense-minister-underground/?amp

@JoshuaWilkes how would this resolve if a submarine 'crashed' but it wasn't in the Taiwan strait?

@JoshuaWilkes That is an intriguing short piece!! Did it get cut off?? Is that all?!? If they lost a submarine and it is confirmed lost they I think it should resolve YES. Is you lose a submarine maybe they don’t know where it is going which is something I hadn’t considered. What do you think?

@BTE You just need to keep scrolling. FWIW it's not a particularly reputable source.

I would probably feel obliged to resolve NO because the question is quite specific about location

@JoshuaWilkes Fair point. I think you are right. If it isn’t in the Taiwan Straight it will resolve NO.

@BTE Looks like it is now speculated that is happened in the Yellow Sea. https://www.eurasiantimes.com/pla-submarine-missing-chinas-defense-minister-underground/

PLA Submarine 'Missing', China's Defense Minister Underground, Speculations On Mishap Reignites

In August 2023, unconfirmed reports swirled about a Chinese nuclear-powered submarine meeting a serious mishap while transiting the Taiwan Strait, and all hands were reportedly lost. China’s Defense Ministry remained tight-lipped about it, but its defense minister Li Shangfu has become conspicuous by his absence from the public eye for two weeks now. Experts observing China’s […]

@BTE that's the article I sent you!

@JoshuaWilkes Haha yes it is.

Heavily discounting this as the Taiwanese claim to not have any evidence in this direction and they have high incentive to notice stuff. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/08/22/2003805127