Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point in 2023?
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resolved Feb 27
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YES

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

Very plausible, he's in second place, there's about a 10% difference between him and first place, there's most of a year for those values to fluctuate, and he only needs to be briefly in first at any point, not in first place at the end.

predicted YES

@Endovior What fluctuations would you expect? Just to get started, I simulated random walks with starting points = current net worths (200 and 190) and steps generated from normal distributions N(0,sd) for sd=2/3 (based on looking at the rankings for a few days). The random walks crossed with probability around 0.51.

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