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Will Raf Manji (The Opportunities Party candidate) win the Ilam electorate in the 2023 New Zealand general election?
15
Ṁ230Ṁ1.7k
resolved Oct 14
Resolved
NO

Will Raf Manji (The Opportunities Party candidate) win the Ilam electorate in the 2023 New Zealand general election?

This will get The Opportunities Party seats in Parliament.

Market context
New Zealand
NZ Politics
2023 New Zealand General Election
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predictedYES

I tried really hard to stan for raf by betting hard on yes on this market against all odds but it was not to be. thanks to everyone who took my money!

predictedNO

I saw there was national party poll a few weeks back, anything further releases for Ilam recently?

For any party candidate: https://manifold.markets/capybara/will-top-win-a-seat-in-nz-general-e?r=Y2FweWJhcmE

Will TOP win a seat in NZ general election 2023
50% chance. Resolves yes if one or more candidates representing the TOP political party win a seat in parliament in the 2023 general election. I expect resolution should be possible within a week of the election. The closing date is set longer, just in case there are any delays.

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