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Resolves positively if one of New York Times, Washington Post, or Wall Street Journal reports that misinformation from generative AI (including LLMs, deepfakes, image generation, etc) was influential in the election.
If outlets merely report claims that the election outcome was changed due to misinformation the market will resolve positively
If outlets report claims ANY particular race, including any state's presidential electors or any governor, national or state congressional or senate representative races were changed due to misinformation the market will resolve positively
If outlets report as objective fact or as probable fact that misinformation from generative AI was influential, even if not determinative, in the election, this market will resolve positively
If outlets quote a single person who say they changed their vote due to something they saw or read that turned out to be misinformation [edit: i.e., misinformation from generative AI], the market will resolve positively
Otherwise, if there are no claims reported that an outcome was changed, and no report that the election was influenced, the market will resolve negatively.
Reports must occur before inauguration 2025.
Due to an element of subjectivity in this market I will not place any bets.