Gannon Ken Van Dyke has been charged with 5 crimes related to alleged insider trading on polymarket on Maduro and Venezuela markets.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "YES" if Gannon Ken Van Dyke is convicted of any of the criminal charges brought against him in the federal indictment unsealed in the Southern District of New York on April 23, 2026. A "conviction" includes a guilty verdict by a judge or jury, or a plea of guilty or nolo contendere to at least one of the charged counts.
The market will resolve to "NO" if the charges are dismissed, if he is found not guilty on all counts, or if the case is otherwise terminated without a conviction.
If convicted after trial, this only resolves after an appeal is ruled upon, or the deadline to file an appeal is over. If an appeals court reverses all counts of conviction, and he is not being retried, this resolves NO. If he is retried, this will not resolve until final resolution of the charges.
Only a conviction on a single charge is required.
Official confirmation of the verdict or plea will be sourced from the U.S. Department of Justice (justice.gov) or public dockets from the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York or the Second Circuit.
Background
On April 23, 2026, federal authorities unsealed an indictment against Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Army Master Sergeant and Special Forces soldier. Prosecutors allege that Van Dyke, who participated in the planning and execution of the January 2026 U.S. military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, used classified information to place wagers on the prediction market platform Polymarket.
Van Dyke is charged with:
Unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain
Theft of nonpublic government information
Commodities fraud (three counts)
Wire fraud
Unlawful monetary transaction
According to the indictment, Van Dyke allegedly profited approximately $409,881 from these wagers. The case is assigned to U.S. District Judge Margaret M. Garnett.
1,000The last two crypto cases where they tried to apply novel theories of law both failed - my own and Nathaniel Chastain, who was accused of insider trading on Opensea. A jury hung on a $25M case last year involving a convoluted scheme to attack "sandwich bots".
The SDNY's record on novel crypto cases is not great. But the facts seem better for them here.
@AviEisenberg are you purporting to be the real Avi Eisenberg of Mango Markets mild infamy? Isn’t he supposed to be in prison for possession of CSAM right now?