Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to the candidate who officially wins the next Ukrainian presidential election.

• Source of Truth: Official declarations from the Central Election Commission of Ukraine (cvk.gov.ua) or, in the event of website or domain issues, consensus reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, Associated Press, BBC).

• Interim/Acting Presidents: A temporary, interim, or acting president (such as the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada assuming duties under Article 112 of the Ukrainian Constitution) will not trigger a resolution. The market will remain open until a permanent president is officially declared elected.

• Timing: The market remains open until the next presidential election takes place, whenever that may be. If the election is indefinitely suspended or the country's political system undergoes a constitutional restructuring that permanently abolishes the directly elected presidency, the market will resolve N/A.

Background

• Wartime Postponement: Ukrainian presidential elections, originally scheduled for Spring 2024, have been legally postponed under martial law (which has been renewed every 90 days by the Verkhovna Rada) because of Russia's full-scale invasion.

• Pressure and Planning: In early 2026, amid pressure from the U.S. administration of Donald Trump, planning and political maneuvering began to emerge regarding a potential postwar election and peace referendum.

• Key Potential Candidates:

  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy: The incumbent president, who took office in 2019. Despite a decline from his peak wartime approval, he remains a leading political figure.

  • Valerii Zaluzhnyi: The former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, currently serving as Ukraine's Ambassador to the UK. He retains immense public popularity and has reportedly confirmed his intention to run if elections are held.

  • Kyrylo Budanov: The popular head of Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) who was appointed as Chief of Staff of the Presidential Office in January 2026 following a corruption scandal that ousted Andriy Yermak.

  • Mykhailo Fedorov (Mychajlo Fedorov): The former Minister of Digital Transformation who served as Minister of Defence from January 2026 until his sudden dismissal by Zelenskyy on July 15, 2026. His dismissal sparked significant public protests in Kyiv and fueled speculation about his political future.

  • Petro Poroshenko: The fifth President of Ukraine (2014–2019) and current leader of the opposition European Solidarity party, who has publicly stated his intent to run again.

  • Serhiy Prytula: A popular TV presenter, politician, and head of a massive wartime charitable foundation, who is widely seen as a strong potential candidate representing civil society.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.