Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if an archaeological discovery is officially confirmed by a reputable academic institution, government heritage agency (such as the National Cultural Heritage Administration of China), or a peer-reviewed archaeological journal to be the remains or grave of Yuan Shao by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2055.

If no such discovery is confirmed by this date, or if a discovery is claimed but not verified by the aforementioned authorities, the market resolves to NO. In the event of conflicting expert reports, the consensus of established archaeological bodies will determine the outcome.

Background

Yuan Shao (died 202 CE) was a powerful warlord during the late Eastern Han dynasty and a central figure in the events leading to the Three Kingdoms period in China. Despite his historical prominence, the location of his tomb remains unknown. Historical texts, such as the Records of the Three Kingdoms (Sanguozhi), document his life and death, but archaeological efforts to identify his burial site have faced significant challenges due to the passage of time, lack of definitive inscriptions, and the potential for looting or destruction of the site over the last two millennia.

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