Will Large Language Models be able to match up all queries of my real name matched up with all my online handles by 2026
Will Large Language Models be able to match up all queries of my real name matched up with all my online handles by 2026
3
90Ṁ20
2027
52%
chance

Including all my ancient ones.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
2y

@AlexKChen Can you clarify a little bit more how much prompting you'll do? For example with Bing I was able to find my accounts with a few rounds of prompting. Would you be willing to state a single prompt you will use to test it?

2y

@dayoshi it can't match my old shitposting on my old online handle from over a decade ago.. yet..

People are also trading

Will a Large Language Model save a human life through medical advice by the end of 2025?
92% chance
Will all of the publicly accessible parts of heavengames.com/aok.heavengames.com become part of a large language model like Claude or GPT by 2025?
59% chance
Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?
34% chance
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
32% chance
Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
36% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance
Will it be effectively impossible to tell a human and a high quality AI apart on social media before 2026?
89% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
45% chance
We are going to start running out of data to train large language models in [YEAR]
In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,
62% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy