Will King Charles III of England's reign be long enough for the development of AGI?

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bought Ṁ150 NO

This might be the most embarassingly priced market on the site.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.10970

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07

This probably underestimates King Charles's life expectancy (his parents lived to 99 and 96), but it assumes he doesn't abdicate.

What would lead to resolution?

presumably King Charles's unfortunate demise, whether from being reduced to paperclips or otherwise

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Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

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Will we get AGI before 2046?

81% chance

Will ASI be developed 5+ years after AGI?

42% chance

Will we get AGI before 2033?

54% chance

Will we get AGI before 2036?

66% chance

Will we get AGI before 2038?

70% chance

Will we get AGI before 2043?

77% chance

Will we get AGI before 2031?

49% chance

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