Will AI/foundation models be able to extract the exponential parameter alpha of an exponential plot by EOY 2025?
2
Ṁ90Ṁ20Jan 1
64%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
eg plot of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution#/media/File:Exponential_distribution_pdf_-_public_domain.svg but yuo dont know the lambda, you just have the axis labels
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution#/media/File:Exponential_distribution_pdf_-_public_domain.svgThis question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
May 2026 AI model releases
Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027?
24% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
13% chance
Will any AI model achieve 4k on CodeForces by EOY?
62% chance
Will I Think Extropic AI Accelerated Timelines by EOY 2027?
11% chance
xAI IPOs by EOY 2026?
92% chance
By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?
7% chance
Will AI be able to accurately do my taxes by EOY 2026?
60% chance
Tesla buys xAI by EOY2026?
6% chance
Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2026?
85% chance