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@prismatic receipts?

@Eliza sry missed the earlier message. not sure where my math went, but I asked claude.

Here's what I found for the relevant fiscal year 2025 budgets:

NSERC (Canada): NSERC's total available authorities for fiscal year 2025–26 amounted to CA$1.507 Canadabillion (Canada's fiscal year runs April–March). At a rough exchange rate of ~US0.72/CA0.72/CA 0.72/CA, that's approximately US$1.08 billion.

NSF (United States): The Full-Year Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2025, signed by the President on March 15, 2025, provided appropriations at the FY2024 level ($9.1 billion) Congress.gov. In terms of actual disbursements, NSF committed approximately $8.17 billion to grants, fellowships, and other funding mechanisms in the 2025 fiscal year Inside Higher Ed (the US fiscal year runs October–September).

The comparison:

Using the enacted NSF appropriation of ~$9.1 billion, 10% would be ~$910 million. NSERC's budget of ~US$1.08 billion comes in at roughly 11–12% of NSF's total budget, so yes — NSERC's budget does exceed the 10% threshold.

If you use NSF's actual grant commitments (~$8.17 billion) as the denominator, NSERC's share is even higher, around 13%.

A few caveats worth noting: the fiscal years don't perfectly align (Canada's FY 2025–26 vs. the US FY 2025), the exchange rate fluctuates, and the two agencies have somewhat different mandates — NSERC covers natural sciences and engineering only, while NSF spans all fields of science and engineering including social sciences. Still, by either measure, NSERC's budget clears the 10% bar.

@prismatic Actually, since this post I think @AutopoieticErgodicity has been given back the permission to manage markets so we should let them resolve it.

@Gen did you have any specific agreement on this or do we just wait and see what happens?

@Eliza Given that I have never seen them resolve a market, color me skeptical, but it's not a lot of mana, so I don't mind waiting. Should I ping y'all in a month or so?

@prismatic Less than that. Try a week.

@Eliza I didn't see this ping, sorry! Just saw this market in the mod queue. I am happy to resolve this now, thank you for figuring it out @Eliza and @prismatic

@AutopoieticErgodicity resolves yes

@mods ^ inactive, i can show the math if needed

@prismatic I had a quick look and looks like No, could you give me more info for Yes?