Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028, a United States federal Court of Appeals (a "Circuit Court") issues a published or unpublished decision in a case involving a bodily-injury claim predicated on human exposure to microplastics.

For the purpose of this market:

• Bodily-injury claim means a legal action where the plaintiff seeks damages for physical harm, medical conditions, or health-related injuries allegedly caused by microplastics. This excludes cases centered primarily on consumer protection, greenwashing, false advertising, or property/environmental damage.

• Resolution source will be public docket records from any of the 13 U.S. Circuit Courts of Appeals, verifiable via PACER or major legal databases like Westlaw, LexisNexis, or Google Scholar.

• If multiple cases exist, the first qualifying ruling within the timeframe triggers a YES.

• If no such ruling is issued by the deadline, the market resolves to NO.

Background

Microplastics are pervasive in the environment and are increasingly being found in human tissues. While there has been an uptick in litigation related to plastic products, the vast majority of cases to date have focused on "greenwashing" or consumer protection—such as claims that products are "plastic-free" or "natural"—or environmental public nuisance theories.

Unlike the well-established "toxic tort" litigation seen with substances like PFAS or asbestos, personal injury claims regarding microplastics are currently in their infancy. Legal experts note that plaintiffs face significant evidentiary hurdles in establishing causation—specifically linking a particular product or defendant to a specific medical harm. While some lower courts have allowed complaints to proceed past the initial motion-to-dismiss stage, a binding ruling from a federal appellate court addressing the merits or viability of a bodily-injury theory would be a significant milestone for this emerging area of law.

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