Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "YES" if a United States Court of Appeals issues a ruling on the merits regarding the dismissal of a civil lawsuit concerning microplastics by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028.

To count as a "ruling on the merits," the appellate court must issue a written opinion or memorandum order affirming, reversing, or vacating a lower court’s dismissal based on arguments involving federal preemption, causation, or the sufficiency of the pleadings (e.g., failure to state a claim under Rule 12(b)(6)).

The market resolves "NO" if no such appellate ruling is issued by the deadline.

This market will be resolved based on filings available via PACER (Public Access to Court Electronic Records) or official dockets maintained by the relevant U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. If the case is settled, withdrawn, or dismissed on procedural grounds unrelated to the merits before an appellate ruling is reached, the market will resolve "NO".

Background

Litigation involving microplastics is an emerging area of law. Plaintiffs have increasingly sought to hold manufacturers and distributors liable for the presence of microplastics in various products, including food, beverages, and personal care items.

Defense counsel in these cases frequently argue for dismissal based on federal preemption (the argument that federal regulation precludes state-law tort claims), failure to establish specific causation, or inadequate pleadings regarding consumer harm or product defect. Appellate rulings in these matters serve as critical precedents that shape the viability of future litigation, determining whether these claims can survive the motion-to-dismiss phase in federal courts.

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