Will I have a girlfriend before I turn the age of 20?
Basic
76
15k
2025
58%
chance

I will be turning 19 in roughly 2 weeks, on August 23rd, 2024. I currently do not have a girlfriend. Will I have a girlfriend before I turn 20 on August 23rd, 2025?

I am a sophomore attending MIT, studying CS & Math. My main academic interests lie in AI, ML, and quant. My hobbies include playing high-ish stakes poker, playing various video games, doing dangerous-ish stunts (hacking), traveling, hiking, and playing guitar & singing (not well). Last semester I was involved in MIT poker club, MIT asian dance team, MIT Ohms acapella, and MIT AI Alignment. I am a brother of ZBT fraternity, living in the house next year.

I’m a Chinese male, 6’2”, ~155 lb. I have been inconsistent in the gym over the summer, but went ~3 times a week last semester, and I predict I will go more consistently when school starts.

Currently I am not really “actively” looking for a girlfriend. I have Hinge which is occasionally used, but overall I am not putting in much effort. I’m definitely open to having a girlfriend.

I have never been in a relationship in the past, although I have been in a previous situationship with an MIT girl (ended Jan 2024), (we are not talking anymore).

This question resolves YES if both me and the girl consider ourselves to be in a relationship, i.e. boyfriend & girlfriend, before 8/23/25. Otherwise resolves NO.

I will not bet in this market.

I do not see myself giving updates about the specific dating scene, but I may update on other tangential things like gym progress, clubs, classes (comment for suggestions)

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How many Austin Chen’s are in this thing??

reposted

Manifold is being flooded with incels

Are you OK with interested Manifold users DMing you should they wish to date you? And what are the ethics of market participation for such people?

Yep ok with ppl messaging me - think it’s fine if they bet in the market

curious to hear if a 2nd/3rd markets could open for odds against:

  • separate girlfriend that is not current situationship

  • AI girlfriend or similar artificial “practice partner” that is a stand-in preparation towards “the real thing” (becoming more common)

Sorry if there was confusion, but I am not in a current situationship - it ended Jan 2024 and I am not talking to the girl at all anymore. As for the AI girlfriend market, I’d be happy to open more interesting related markets but I think this one is too unlikely for me to open.

understood RE: AI gf, tho going long on it for the funny would be funny

also understood RE no current situationship, curious if we will get any updates on MIT dating scene / if MIT events are contributing factors (protests vibes vs campus fun events vibes would sway)

bought Ṁ50 YES

upped to 2x YES b/c i believe in you buddy

Re "I'm not actually looking" - you should consider starting to! College is probably the last place you will be surrounded by opportunities to have serendipitous encounters with large numbers of smart single women. After you leave college it gets a lot harder. My wife and I met in college, and those of my friends who didn't meet their future spouse in college are like 5-10 years behind on the family& household track, if that's what you are interested in. And that doesn't even count the ones who are single.

Is there anyone who can speak to the current dating market at MIT or in Boston generally?

I think it’s somewhat lively at MIT, but it depends on who you ask ? I’d say maybe ~25% of my close friends are dating/in relationships

Btw is the fact that your username is the same as the Manifold co-founder @Austin just a coincidence, an alt-account, or possibly-community-guidelines-breaking impersonation?

It’s a coincidence lol, we are not the same person

Ah cool

Haha if you find a girlfriend before 20 you'll be doing much better than I did!

Clarification: not talking with the girl from January

bought Ṁ50 NO

Betting no because 2 weeks isn’t a very long time and it doesn’t seem like you’re making it a priority. If it hasn’t happened with this girl since January, then why would it happen now? And it would be hard to go from dating to being an official girlfriend in 2 weeks. You sound like a nice guy but like a relationship isn’t your priority. So I bet no, but not because I’m not rooting for you!

1 year and two weeks!

Oops! But I’ll keep my bet, because if he has a situationship then he is not gonna be looking seriously, I think he’ll focus on school and hobbies.

Sold because there was a profit potential tbh

Betting no because between the MIT course load, your various hobbies and finding a partner not being that high of a priority, it sounds like there might not be that much time/energy right now to form a lot of those kinds of meaningful connections that can turn into relationships.

Given your description, particularly that you're 6'2, I expect whether you get a girlfriend would largely depend on how much effort you put in and your standards. I would not expect any girls to be asking you out, but I would expect many to say yes if you asked them out.

How often is your occasional use of Hinge? Will you update us if you switch to actively looking?

Generally it varies but I’ll probably say something if I decide to go on my first Hinge date

Thanks