I've been thinking about getting a nice large space in San Francisco, to use as a coworking space, or to run events out of. It'd be great to have a hub for the people I like, some mix of startup, EA, progress, AI safety folks. Some inspirational spaces include Lighthaven, Constellation, and the SF Commons.

I've had this idea in the back of my mind for a few months now, but recently the it's been gaining traction. I've spoken to some small startups and folks who seem interested, have engaged a commercial real estate broker, and am touring one place next Tuesday. But I also have significant hesitations about the whole idea.

Market resolves to YES if by the end of Q1 2025, I've launched a space and/or signed a lease for it. If I've made what I deem significant progress but haven't launched/signed any lease, I'll extend the timeline to this market to Q2 2025

Why start a space?

1. I would personally want to use it!

2. My friends in SF seem pretty excited to use it too

   • I keep inviting people to cowork from the Manifold/Manifund office and now it's a little more full than ideal

3. Impact: on priors, it makes sense that something like an EA/AI Safety hub ought to exist in San Francisco, where all the AI development actually happens, rather than Berkeley

   • I sometimes pitch this idea as "Constellation in SF", though I expect my space would be as different from Constellation as Manifest is from EAG

4. I like new challenges, and haven't done a coworking space before

   • The parts that interest me: enabling good work, community organizing, financial structuring. OTOH I'm not excited about interior design or day-to-day operations

5. Historically I've been pretty good at community-building stuff like Manifest, Mexifold

   • And I think I'm good at stag hunts in general, which "start a coworking space" is shaped like

6. It'd much easier to organize future events if I own a space

7. San Francisco is my home, I like it very much, and want to give back

   • Starting a coworking space is one kind of bet on the future of SF

   • The existence of a good space in SF should spur more people to come, too

Why not

1. Opportunity costs: I think this would probably take 2-8 weeks of my time up front (plus ?? ongoing commitment costs to me, depending on whether I can find good people to run it)

2. Even though I'm good at community building, I'm not sure it's what I was put on this earth to do

   • I'm a hopeless introvert at heart (though sometimes I conveniently forget this fact)

3. Coworking spaces are bad businesses, as far as I can tell

   • Nowhere near the margins of software

   • The upsides mostly flow to the tenants I think?

     • Maybe the answer is "charge more" but I'm somewhat allergic to that

   • (nb this is probably true for conferences too)

4. Many other event/coworking spaces have failed or are failing

   • E.g. Lightcone Offices, Atlantis, Solaris AI, Wytham Abbey if you squint

   • It's not obvious to me that SF Commons or Constellation are currently doing well (at least well enough to make me go "yeah there's no point in me starting my own")

5. My SF community might already be way more densely networked than ideal

   • My calendar already feels uncomfortably saturated with parties and other events

   • See Alexey Guzey: "i think sf will ruin gwern"

6. "Coworking" might be actively harmful (bad for focus, lead to groupthink). Famously, Paul Graham refused to offer coworking to YC startups

   • I do think the Constellation setup of "provide lots of private offices" might be good

7. Maybe somebody else will do it if I don't 🤞

   • I've been pretty happy with the service Lighthaven provides, and if they were in SF I wouldn't be considering this

8. Physical spaces mostly serve human users; maybe there's more upside in serving AI users

   • though, as a human, I like humans, and probably will for a long time

9. Maybe most interesting work in SF happens inside of labs, so there's less need for this kind of space

If you'd like to see this space exist, reach out to me (austin@manifund.org), or comment below! Some things I'd like help with:

• Seed funding

  • I expect this would cost ~$50k/mo, though I do also hope to recoup a lot (or even profit) from running this, and return that to "investors"

• Recs for great folks to help run the space

  • Skillsets I'd be looking for: interior design, day-to-day ops generalist, people with good taste and initiative

• Interest from users who would pay for the space

  • Coworking tenants like startups or individual researchers; event organizers who like our vibe

• Recs for locations

  • I'm generally looking around Alamo/Hayes since those are nice areas close to where I live