Will Austin pay more for Beeminder than Daniel pays for Manifold by the end of 2022?
11
6
Ṁ297Ṁ132
resolved Jan 26
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
(Daniel is @dreev)
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
Get Ṁ200 play money
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@Austin Ooh, it was close! I'm so happy about everything about this (I mean like us both being serious users of both Beeminder and Manifold, not you spending more than me!) and it has me excited about Beeminder adding Manifold as an autodata integration...
I think anyone saying that the median outcome of Manifold is higher right now is dramatically underestimating the difficulty of both Manifold successfully growing to e.g. 100x its current userbase and Manifold finding any way to profit from the growth. I think the EV of Manifold may well be higher, because prediction markets seem to me to have a bigger potential ceiling than Beeminder's gadget, but not the median outcome. Also, the end of 2022 is a short timeframe.
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