Will Austin pay more for Beeminder than Daniel pays for Manifold by the end of 2022?
32%
chance
(Daniel is @dreev)
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
Marshall Polaris sold M$41 of YESa month ago
I was pranked
Daniel Reeves is betting NO at 68% a month ago
Oh, clarification! Austin means how much he will personally pay as a user of Beeminder vs what I'll pay personally as a user of Manifold. Pretty sure I've paid more so far!
Marshall Polaris bought M$50 of YESa month ago
I think anyone saying that the median outcome of Manifold is higher right now is dramatically underestimating the difficulty of both Manifold successfully growing to e.g. 100x its current userbase and Manifold finding any way to profit from the growth. I think the EV of Manifold may well be higher, because prediction markets seem to me to have a bigger potential ceiling than Beeminder's gadget, but not the median outcome. Also, the end of 2022 is a short timeframe.
Daniel Reeves is betting NO at 24% a month ago
(Derivative market idea: Can I profit by just buying enough mana to outpace Austin's Beeminder spending and betting accordingly in this market?)
(I guess just asking the question will drive down the market probability here...)