Will Austin pay more for Beeminder than Daniel pays for Manifold by the end of 2022?

11

132Ṁ297

resolved Jan 26

Resolved

YES

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

(Daniel is @dreev) Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ40
2		Ṁ22
3		Ṁ13
4		Ṁ1
5		Ṁ0

People are also trading

Will Austin return to working for Manifold before the end of 2025?

Will James or Austin return to Manifold before 2026?

Will Manifold raise another $500K USD in 2025?

Will Manifold give prominent community members equity in Manifold by the end of 2025?

Will Manifold offer any kind of paid subscription service before the end of 2025?

Will Manifold's next backend engineer's compensation be tied to counterfactual server costs?

Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

If Manifold gives me a $100,000 advertising budget, will Manifold's MAUs double within a year?

Will I pay Manifold over $100 this year?

Up to how much would Manifold users be willing to pay/month if Manifold became subscription based?

Sort by:

predictedYES

By my count, Daniel has bought $345 of mana, while I've paid $480 to Beeminder last year!

predictedNO

@Austin Ooh, it was close! I'm so happy about everything about this (I mean like us both being serious users of both Beeminder and Manifold, not you spending more than me!) and it has me excited about Beeminder adding Manifold as an autodata integration...

I was pranked

predictedNO

Oh, clarification! Austin means how much he will personally pay as a user of Beeminder vs what I'll pay personally as a user of Manifold. Pretty sure I've paid more so far!

I think anyone saying that the median outcome of Manifold is higher right now is dramatically underestimating the difficulty of both Manifold successfully growing to e.g. 100x its current userbase and Manifold finding any way to profit from the growth. I think the EV of Manifold may well be higher, because prediction markets seem to me to have a bigger potential ceiling than Beeminder's gadget, but not the median outcome. Also, the end of 2022 is a short timeframe.

predictedNO

(Derivative market idea: Can I profit by just buying enough mana to outpace Austin's Beeminder spending and betting accordingly in this market?) (I guess just asking the question will drive down the market probability here...)

People are also trading

Will Austin return to working for Manifold before the end of 2025?

Will James or Austin return to Manifold before 2026?

Will Manifold raise another $500K USD in 2025?

Will Manifold give prominent community members equity in Manifold by the end of 2025?

Will Manifold offer any kind of paid subscription service before the end of 2025?

Will Manifold's next backend engineer's compensation be tied to counterfactual server costs?

Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

If Manifold gives me a $100,000 advertising budget, will Manifold's MAUs double within a year?

Will I pay Manifold over $100 this year?

Up to how much would Manifold users be willing to pay/month if Manifold became subscription based?

Related questions

Will Austin return to working for Manifold before the end of 2025?

Will James or Austin return to Manifold before 2026?

Will Manifold raise another $500K USD in 2025?

Will Manifold give prominent community members equity in Manifold by the end of 2025?

Will Manifold offer any kind of paid subscription service before the end of 2025?

Will Manifold's next backend engineer's compensation be tied to counterfactual server costs?

Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

If Manifold gives me a $100,000 advertising budget, will Manifold's MAUs double within a year?

Will I pay Manifold over $100 this year?

Up to how much would Manifold users be willing to pay/month if Manifold became subscription based?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy