Will Austin pay more for Beeminder than Daniel pays for Manifold by the end of 2022?
11
Ṁ131Ṁ297resolved Jan 26
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
(Daniel is @dreev)
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ40 | |
| 2 | Ṁ22 | |
| 3 | Ṁ13 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?
34% chance
Will I have a higher Manifold net worth than the CEO of Manifold before June?
53% chance
Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
28% chance
If Manifold gives me a $100,000 advertising budget, will Manifold's MAUs double within a year?
57% chance
Sort by:
@Austin Ooh, it was close! I'm so happy about everything about this (I mean like us both being serious users of both Beeminder and Manifold, not you spending more than me!) and it has me excited about Beeminder adding Manifold as an autodata integration...
I think anyone saying that the median outcome of Manifold is higher right now is dramatically underestimating the difficulty of both Manifold successfully growing to e.g. 100x its current userbase and Manifold finding any way to profit from the growth. I think the EV of Manifold may well be higher, because prediction markets seem to me to have a bigger potential ceiling than Beeminder's gadget, but not the median outcome. Also, the end of 2022 is a short timeframe.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?
34% chance
Will I have a higher Manifold net worth than the CEO of Manifold before June?
53% chance
Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
28% chance
If Manifold gives me a $100,000 advertising budget, will Manifold's MAUs double within a year?
57% chance