What major projects will Manifold tackle in June?
24
38
resolved Apr 7
ResolvedN/A
0.1%
Android and iOS apps
1.7%
Chatbots for betting (eg Discord, Twitch)
0.1%
1-click betting from the homepage
7%
Automatic Resolution Dates
4%
More leaderboards (daily/weekly/monthly/all-time, and on #markets/comments/bettors in market)
3%
Embed images in descriptions and comments
5%
True categorical markets
1.0%
Short selling: FR, categories, numerical
8%
Markdown support
4%
A way to promote/favorite markets
0.5%
Recurring markets
9%
Following other users
0.4%
Log of all balance changes
3%
Portfolio Page Redesign
6%
Limit orders
2.0%
Loans
5%
On-Site notifications
3%
Native polling support
0.8%
Editing your comments
4%
Performance improvements (eg betting, loading portfolio)
As we go into June planning, it's time to consider: what major projects should we take on? There are a lot of ideas floating around, so we'd like to use PREDICTION MARKETS to help us decide. Resolves relative to the number of dev-days we end up spending on each of the listed projects in June. For context, I'd guess we'll have about 6*20 = 120 dev days in June, and spend 60-80 dev days on "major projects"; others on polish and bugfixes.
Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

25 Comments
117 Trades
Sort by:

I'm N/A'ing this as none of us remembers. We could possibly work it out by going through our old notion docs etc, but I think everyone can agree it's not worth 15mins of our time to do so when we can be using that time to build new cool stuff.

@Austin Time to resolve, I think.

Impressive how many of these have been shipped, albeit many in July.
answered
Short selling: FR, categories, numerical
@Milli We are planning to switch away from DPM to a CPMM for free response markets. Nevertheless, we still haven't decided exactly how short selling would work. If you're interested, I have this writeup of how to support short selling with DPM (and an extension of it for CPMM is I think is promising!): https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/DPM-side-pools-3cd67e6653fe4a19ba507a99ad473c30
answered
Short selling: FR, categories, numerical
@Austin Do you have written up your plan for short selling dpm markets? I stumble into several problems when I think about them.
answered
True categorical markets
bought Ṁ10
@Austin stretch goal: allow creators to convert free response to categorical after they have enough responses and now want more accuracy.
answered
Comment tips
@JamesGrugett Do comment penalties (negative tips?) count as a different feature?
answered
Comment tips
@akhil I think so, we'd probably want to start simple, but I'm also curious about that formulation! How would negative tips work? The creator of the market is free to fine anyone up to M$10 who commented in the market?
answered
Comment tips
Random ideas: P1. You can burn M$10 to burn M$10 of the commenter's money P2. You can pay M$10 to decrease the visibility of the comment (it's shown lower on the page in the "tipped" sort order; or it's probabilistically shown at 60% instead of 100%) P3. Something like Sinclair's staking proposal, where tips are bets on whether the creator will like this comment https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Comment-Tips-3a3873ed48f54790ac193d96e2403e1d
answered
Comment tips
P4. You can place a bet on OTHER people paying M$ to decrease the visibility of the comment. Like retroactive public goods funding, but inverted.
answered
Comment tips
I think there's actually something seriously interesting/true about this formulation - the attention spent on a market's comments is zero sum, as is their ranking. Given that it's zero sum, it should be meaningful to place bets on what the final ordering of comments ought to be. What is "ought to be" here? Maybe it's the final ordering that the creator deems they like; usually defaults to MKT, but sometimes they can promote one comment as being especially "good" (helpful, clarifying, probability-adjusting) or flag another for being especially "bad" (toxic, distracting, fake news)
answered
Comment tips
bought Ṁ30
Funnily enough - you can kind of use the Free Response mechanism for this already, since the higher % answers are shown higher. And if you could short Free Response answers, then we'd basically have this system 80% implemented. Then all that's left is to allow uptipping/downtipping in addition to upbetting/downbetting! Tipping = donating, betting = investing
answered
Comment tips
@Austin That would definitely the intuition behind this. A few more things to consider: - The freshness/newness of comments is important. Older comments are more likely to have higher scores, but one wouldn't necessarily want to show those first - Liquidity/betting on comments would be quite sparse, so bets might not provide enough information @JamesGrugett formulation of "The creator of the market is free to fine anyone up to M$10 who commented in the market" makes a lot of sense to me compared to anyone being able to downvote a comment they don't like - especially when the questions have to do with politics or something controversial etc. The market creator is the best positioned person to do this I feel.
answered
Rewarding users with USD for doing noteworthy things (e.g. making it onto leaderboards)
Haha I'm in two minds about this - on one hand, more USD payouts are good; on the other, I think most noteworthy things like community contributions deserve bounties paid out in mana?
answered
Rewarding users with USD for doing noteworthy things (e.g. making it onto leaderboards)
@Austin Yeah I originally put M$ in the title but I wanted to differentiate from those types of bounties which we already do
answered
Rewarding users with USD for doing noteworthy things (e.g. making it onto leaderboards)
bought Ṁ10
h/t to @FRCassarino for suggesting being able to hire top leaderboard performers to research your question
answered
A way to promote/favorite markets
bought Ṁ5
@Austin Yes, I love following markets as they can be the only available information aggregators on esoteric topics!
answered
Portfolio Page Redesign
bought Ṁ5
@AkhilWable definitely! With achievement badges!
This seems like a situation where the UX would clearly be better served as a collection of binary markets, each resolving YES or NO based on whether the thing is completed
Yeah, it's not a perfect UI for this use case. The really ideal thing would be a collection of like, Kickstarter-type proposals, where Manifold users can pitch their M$ towards getting certain features prioritized haha
answered
On-Site notifications
sold Ṁ109
@AkhilWable ok haha, awesome. People betting on a market you’ve created feels good - hope there is a notification for that! Also aggregating notifications that correspond to the same question (one of my gripes with sites like Twitter)
answered
On-Site notifications
@akhil I like the idea of getting an aggregated (24hr?) notification that people bet on your market. Especially bc we want to incentivize good questions! Would love to hear your other ideas here: https://manifold.markets/ian/what-new-notification-types-will-ma
answered
More ways to cash out of M$
(specifically: turning mana into real USD to creators, similarly to how Manifold for Charity works)
answered
More ways to cash out of M$
Going to include "Doubling down of Manifold for Charity" in here too, specifically by allocating the FTX FF prize pool (and maybe SFF?)
answered
More ways to cash out of M$
bought Ṁ10
Ideas we've talked about but have not implemented: - Swag prize gallery - Tipping/sending mana to Manifold Creators (eg Aella) - Tournaments

Related questions