What major projects will Manifold tackle in June?
Basic
24
Ṁ2289resolved Apr 7
ResolvedN/A
10%
Return of folds / communities
10%
Comment tips
9%
Following other users
8%
Markdown support
7%
Automatic Resolution Dates
6%
Limit orders
5%
On-Site notifications
5%
True categorical markets
5%
Exotic market types (eg equity, perp swaps, date, partial resolution)
5%
More ways to cash out of M$
4%
More leaderboards (daily/weekly/monthly/all-time, and on #markets/comments/bettors in market)
4%
Performance improvements (eg betting, loading portfolio)
4%
A way to promote/favorite markets
3%
Embed images in descriptions and comments
3%
Portfolio Page Redesign
3%
Native polling support
2.0%
Loans
1.7%
Chatbots for betting (eg Discord, Twitch)
As we go into June planning, it's time to consider: what major projects should we take on? There are a lot of ideas floating around, so we'd like to use PREDICTION MARKETS to help us decide.
Resolves relative to the number of dev-days we end up spending on each of the listed projects in June. For context, I'd guess we'll have about 6*20 = 120 dev days in June, and spend 60-80 dev days on "major projects"; others on polish and bugfixes.
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@Milli We are planning to switch away from DPM to a CPMM for free response markets. Nevertheless, we still haven't decided exactly how short selling would work. If you're interested, I have this writeup of how to support short selling with DPM (and an extension of it for CPMM is I think is promising!): https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/DPM-side-pools-3cd67e6653fe4a19ba507a99ad473c30
@Austin Do you have written up your plan for short selling dpm markets? I stumble into several problems when I think about them.
@Austin stretch goal: allow creators to convert free response to categorical after they have enough responses and now want more accuracy.
@akhil I think so, we'd probably want to start simple, but I'm also curious about that formulation! How would negative tips work? The creator of the market is free to fine anyone up to M$10 who commented in the market?
Random ideas:
P1. You can burn M$10 to burn M$10 of the commenter's money
P2. You can pay M$10 to decrease the visibility of the comment (it's shown lower on the page in the "tipped" sort order; or it's probabilistically shown at 60% instead of 100%)
P3. Something like Sinclair's staking proposal, where tips are bets on whether the creator will like this comment https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Comment-Tips-3a3873ed48f54790ac193d96e2403e1d
I think there's actually something seriously interesting/true about this formulation - the attention spent on a market's comments is zero sum, as is their ranking. Given that it's zero sum, it should be meaningful to place bets on what the final ordering of comments ought to be.
What is "ought to be" here? Maybe it's the final ordering that the creator deems they like; usually defaults to MKT, but sometimes they can promote one comment as being especially "good" (helpful, clarifying, probability-adjusting) or flag another for being especially "bad" (toxic, distracting, fake news)
Funnily enough - you can kind of use the Free Response mechanism for this already, since the higher % answers are shown higher. And if you could short Free Response answers, then we'd basically have this system 80% implemented.
Then all that's left is to allow uptipping/downtipping in addition to upbetting/downbetting! Tipping = donating, betting = investing
@Austin That would definitely the intuition behind this. A few more things to consider:
- The freshness/newness of comments is important. Older comments are more likely to have higher scores, but one wouldn't necessarily want to show those first
- Liquidity/betting on comments would be quite sparse, so bets might not provide enough information
@JamesGrugett formulation of "The creator of the market is free to fine anyone up to M$10 who commented in the market" makes a lot of sense to me compared to anyone being able to downvote a comment they don't like - especially when the questions have to do with politics or something controversial etc. The market creator is the best positioned person to do this I feel.
@Austin Yeah I originally put M$ in the title but I wanted to differentiate from those types of bounties which we already do
h/t to @FRCassarino for suggesting being able to hire top leaderboard performers to research your question
@Austin Yes, I love following markets as they can be the only available information aggregators on esoteric topics!
@AkhilWable ok haha, awesome. People betting on a market you’ve created feels good - hope there is a notification for that! Also aggregating notifications that correspond to the same question (one of my gripes with sites like Twitter)
@akhil I like the idea of getting an aggregated (24hr?) notification that people bet on your market. Especially bc we want to incentivize good questions! Would love to hear your other ideas here:
https://manifold.markets/ian/what-new-notification-types-will-ma
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