How many EA Bahamas folks will report positive COVID tests on Slack within a week?
How many EA Bahamas folks will report positive COVID tests on Slack within a week?
16
840Ṁ7331resolved May 11
100%98.3%
4 to 6
0.3%Other
0.4%
1 to 3
1.0%
7 to 9
0.1%
10+
For context, Sinclair just tested positive: https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/how-many-manifold-team-members-in-t
We've spent the last day in the EA Bahamas office, including on a bus from the office to the hotel packed with about 15 total folks. I'd estimate there to be 30ish total EA Bahamas people atm.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ920 | |
| 2 | Ṁ218 | |
| 3 | Ṁ203 | |
| 4 | Ṁ97 | |
| 5 | Ṁ93 |
Sort by:
I'm guessing this doesn't count Linch since he was positive before this question was asked, but has only posted negative results after?
Inclusive of the Manifold team!
Fwiw: nobody else I know of has reported a positive test, and I think most everyone has taken a test.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.