How many EA Bahamas folks will report positive COVID tests on Slack within a week?
16
resolved May 11
4 to 6
Chosen
98.3%
7 to 91.0%
1 to 30.4%
10+0.1%
For context, Sinclair just tested positive: https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/how-many-manifold-team-members-in-t
We've spent the last day in the EA Bahamas office, including on a bus from the office to the hotel packed with about 15 total folks. I'd estimate there to be 30ish total EA Bahamas people atm.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ360 | |
| 2 | Ṁ48 | |
| 3 | Ṁ26 | |
| 4 | Ṁ17 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
Sort by:
4 total now! Wish we had shorting FR answers implemented so I could bet that down @JamesGrugett
I'm guessing this doesn't count Linch since he was positive before this question was asked, but has only posted negative results after?
Inclusive of the Manifold team!
Fwiw: nobody else I know of has reported a positive test, and I think most everyone has taken a test.
A trader sold Ṁ56 7 to 9 at 0.0%
A trader bought Ṁ500 4 to 6 at 96%
A trader bought Ṁ500 4 to 6 from 95% to 96%
A trader bought Ṁ500 4 to 6 from 94% to 95%
A trader bought Ṁ500 4 to 6 from 92% to 94%
A trader bought Ṁ500 4 to 6 from 90% to 92%
A trader bought Ṁ500 4 to 6 from 86% to 90%
A trader sold Ṁ14 4 to 6 at 0.0%
A trader sold Ṁ124 7 to 9 at 0.0%
A trader bought Ṁ4 4 to 6 at 79%
A trader bought Ṁ1 7 to 9 at 18%
A trader sold Ṁ1 1 to 3 at 0.0%
A trader sold Ṁ1 1 to 3 at 0.0%
A trader sold Ṁ16 7 to 9 at 0.0%
A trader sold Ṁ17 7 to 9 at 0.0%
A trader sold Ṁ164 7 to 9 at 0.0%
A trader sold Ṁ5 4 to 6 at 0.0%
A trader bought Ṁ10 4 to 6 at 70%
A trader sold Ṁ2 1 to 3 at 0.0%
A trader sold Ṁ25 7 to 9 at 0.0%
A trader bought Ṁ5 4 to 6 at 69%
A trader bought Ṁ20 7 to 9 from 28% to 29%
A trader sold Ṁ1 1 to 3 at 0.0%
A trader bought Ṁ200 7 to 9 from 18% to 28%
A trader bought Ṁ500 4 to 6 from 70% to 79%
A trader bought Ṁ150 7 to 9 from 17% to 26%
A trader bought Ṁ500 4 to 6 from 66% to 78%
A trader bought Ṁ150 7 to 9 from 14% to 26%
A trader bought Ṁ500 4 to 6 from 58% to 77%
A trader bought Ṁ20 7 to 9 from 23% to 26%
A trader bought Ṁ100 4 to 6 from 53% to 60%
A trader bought Ṁ20 7 to 9 from 25% to 27%
A trader bought Ṁ50 7 to 9 from 18% to 25%
A trader bought Ṁ20 7 to 9 from 16% to 18%
A trader bought Ṁ100 4 to 6 from 54% to 62%
A trader sold Ṁ0 1 to 3 at 0.0%
A trader sold Ṁ39 1 to 3 at 0.0%
A trader bought Ṁ30 7 to 9 from 13% to 17%
A trader bought Ṁ30 4 to 6 from 50% to 53%
A trader sold Ṁ41 1 to 3 at 0.0%
A trader sold Ṁ11 1 to 3 at 0.0%
A trader sold Ṁ22 1 to 3 at 0.0%
A trader bought Ṁ50 1 to 3 from 29% to 35%
A trader bought Ṁ5 10+ from 1.9% to 3%
A trader bought Ṁ30 7 to 9 from 8% to 13%
A trader bought Ṁ30 7 to 9 from 2% to 8%
A trader bought Ṁ50 4 to 6 from 49% to 54%
A trader bought Ṁ1 4 to 6 at 49%
A trader bought Ṁ50 4 to 6 from 43% to 49%
A trader bought Ṁ5 4 to 6 at 43%
Related markets
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?19%
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?70%
If the conservative dating app "The Right Stuff" is still running one year after launch, what percentage of its active users will be female?18%
In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will the average response among all entrants be within the top 10% of entrants if scored as an entrant itself?37%
Will a Facebook and Instagram have more than 250,000 paid verifications 3 months after launching?82%
Related markets
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?19%
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?70%
If the conservative dating app "The Right Stuff" is still running one year after launch, what percentage of its active users will be female?18%
In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will the average response among all entrants be within the top 10% of entrants if scored as an entrant itself?37%
Will a Facebook and Instagram have more than 250,000 paid verifications 3 months after launching?82%