$50 bounty for "Best analysis of Ukraine invasion predictions" that includes Manifold
8
560Ṁ652resolved Mar 14
85%9%
Clay Graubard, Andrew Eaddy, Michał Dubrawski
https://globalguessing.com/russia-ukraine-forecasts/
79%Other
5%
Comment thread + ante
0.0%
So, if you look at the two largest Ukraine prediction markets on Manifold, on the surface they seem surprisingly accurate and opinionated in their two separate predictions, but sliding the time window out further by weighting the two predictions, the Markets really only modeled out that there was a 0.557 chance that an invasion was going to occur within a timeframe, when in retrospect, is pretty close to 5% of, "not sure," so ultimately we collectively did not know what was going to happen, and the market changed their answer at the last minute, which means the prediction was really just a description of what was going on rather than an actual prediction.
I'm posting a $50 USD bounty for the best writeup of how different forecasting platforms (prediction markets or otherwise) performed on the subject of the Ukraine invasion date.
- Each free response answer should link to a different writeup. The writeup must include at least one Manifold market.
- There's an ante of M$ 500 for the best response. You may link to writeups which are not yours; only the writer is eligible for the bounty, but you would win the share of M$.
- I'll choose the writeup I think is the best. If multiple writeups are very good, I may award more bounties (with at least $50 to the winner); and will resolve this market according to the ratio of total bounty payouts.
- We may be able to provide full trader identities on resolved markets; comment if you're interested.
ACX investigated this briefly https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-ukraine-cube-manifold ; but this was before the invasion happened. (The market Scott pulled up also was for a February invasion; an apples-to-apples comparison might compare to our market for all of 2022).
Close date updated to 2022-03-04 11:59 pm
Mar 14, 4:29pm: Thanks everyone for participating! I'm choosing to award:
$50 USD to the GlobalGuessing crew for their work on reporting Russia/Ukraine forecasting accuracy
M$ 500 to Patrick Delaney's weighted index market
M$ 350 to Em of the Night's troll writeup
(payouts to come soon; if you haven't received it in a week, please bug me about it)
Mar 15, 12:21pm: All payouts have been sent!
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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So, if you look at the two largest Ukraine prediction markets on Manifold, on the surface they seem surprisingly accurate and opinionated in their two separate predictions, but sliding the time window out further by weighting the two predictions, the Markets really only modeled out that there was a 0.557 chance that an invasion was going to occur within a timeframe, when in retrospect, is pretty close to 5% of, "not sure," so ultimately we collectively did not know what was going to happen, and the market changed their answer at the last minute, which means the prediction was really just a description of what was going on rather than an actual prediction.