If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, will cannabis be decriminalized or legalized by the midterms?

260Ṁ547

2026

20%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 presidential elections AND a federal law is enacted that legalizes cannabis or removes criminal penalties for the possession of cannabis for personal use by Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026.

Resolves NO if Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 presidential election AND no federal laws are enacted that legalize cannabis or remove criminal penalties for the possession of cannabis for personal use by November 3rd, 2026.

Resolves N/A if Donald Trump is not elected president in 2024 or if a federal law is enacted that legalizes cannabis or removes criminal penalties for the possession of cannabis for personal use prior to the election on November 5th, 2024.

Sister market:

2024 US Presidential Election

Joe Biden

Cannabis

Drug Policy

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reposted 4mo

Trump has been softening his stance here considerably and came out in support of the Florida referendum…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/11/05/donald-trump-marijuana-weed-cannabis-legalization-medical-recreational-election/75970501007/

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

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