Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if at least one oil tanker successfully transits the Strait of Hormuz on March 12, 2026. Resolution will be determined by verified ship-tracking data from sources including real-time ship transit counts from the Strait of Hormuz Live Tracker, MarineTraffic, or Bloomberg vessel-tracking reports. Note that widespread signal interference and disabled transponders have made real-time tracking difficult, so some transits may not be detected if vessels' transponders haven't been switched back on. The market resolves NO if no oil tankers are confirmed to have transited the strait on that date.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz has experienced ongoing disruption since February 28, 2026, following joint military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, which included the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei. In response, Iran launched retaliatory attacks and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage through the strait. On March 5, the IRGC announced that Iran would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed only to ships from the US, Israel and their Western allies. As of March 9, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level of the conflict, with only two outbound Iranian-flagged vessels recorded and no inbound crossings. The strait gives passage to one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

Considerations

Evidence suggests that some tankers may be completing dark transits through the Strait with AIS signals disabled, meaning visible maritime traffic may undercount actual transits. Additionally, certain vessels signaling Chinese or Muslim ownership have successfully transited the strait, while Western-flagged vessels have been targeted, suggesting that flag state and ownership may influence passage likelihood on March 12.

This description was generated by AI.