If Biden wins [state] will he win the 2024 presidential election?
Basic
14
1.1k
2025
90%
North Carolina
85%
Georgia
80%
Pennsylvania
80%
Arizona
79%
Wisconsin
76%
Michigan
76%
Nevada

For each option:

  • If Biden wins the state and wins the presidential election it resolves to YES

  • If Biden wins the state and loses the presidential election it resolves to NO

  • If Biden does not win the state it resolves to N/A

I am using "Biden" to refer to the Democratic nominee for simplicity's sake. If Biden is not the Democratic nominee, this market will refer to whoever ends up being the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate.

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