If Biden loses [state] will he win the 2024 presidential election?
Basic
16
แน€491
2025
51%
North Carolina
50%
Georgia
49%
Nevada
49%
Arizona
39%
Wisconsin
36%
Michigan
25%
Pennsylvania

For each option:

  • If Biden loses the state and wins the presidential election it resolves to YES

  • If Biden loses the state and loses the presidential election it resolves to NO

  • If Biden does not lose the state it resolves to N/A

I am using "Biden" to refer to the Democratic nominee for simplicity's sake. If Biden is not the Democratic nominee, this market will refer to whoever ends up being the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate.

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