Will Arjun's dominant assurance contract reach the required 10 funders?
14
350
310
resolved Jan 26
Resolved
NO

See https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9cvK8QX9ZRBxmEfcz/consider-paying-for-literature-or-book-reviews-using

In theory, writers could kickstart posts using dominant assurance contracts. An example (this is a real offer): If you send $20 to arjun.panickssery at Gmail via PayPal by noon New York time on January 21st, I'll send you back $25 if fewer than 10 people sent me money. If 10 or more people send me money, I'll post a review of Steven Pinker's The Sense of Style: The Thinking Person's Guide to Writing in the 21st Century by the end of the month. I'm not sure whether I'm just giving away free money right now.

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predicted NO

@ArjunPanickssery Did you reach 10 funders?

Just contributed my $20!

Fun fact: I also experimented with a dominant assurance contract as a Manifold market, to fund the implementation of a Dark Mode: https://manifold.markets/Austin/kickstart-will-the-manifold-communi. Sadly, it didn't hit the funding level required...

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Arjun Panickssery

https://manifold.markets/ArjunPanickssery/will-arjuns-dominant-assurance-cont