Will the Blue Lagoon be destroyed in a volcanic eruption before the end of 2024?
➕
Plus
17
Ṁ5063
Dec 31
32%
chance

The recent string of eruptions in Iceland over the past three years have all happened close to the Blue Lagoon. The latest reports suggest that a magma intrusion is moving in the vicinity of the Blue Lagoon.

The area has now been evacuated.

Question will resolve yes if the Blue Lagoon is destroyed (fully or to such an extent it is inoperable) by a volcanic eruption in 2023 or 2024. Closures for safety reasons do not count as destruction.

I will not bet on this question.

UPDATE: Eruption has started in the vicinity, lava flow uncertain: https://www.ruv.is/english/2023-12-18-eruption-on-reykjanes-peninsula-399922

Live video feed overlooking The Blue Lagoon: https://www.youtube.com/live/804nPrAUAxg?si=hnKFJdyoEJ3Q8ZF5

https://www.ruv.is/english/2023-10-30-land-rises-near-blue-lagoon-after-earthquakes-395279

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

@traders parts of the area now being destroyed by the latest eruption. If this continues it might lead to a difficult resolution choice https://www.ruv.is/frettir/innlent/2024-11-20-hraunid-rennur-yfir-bilastaedi-blaa-lonsins-428061

https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news/2024/11/21/the_entire_car_park_is_now_covered_in_lava/
The entire parking lot of the Blue Lagoon is now under lava, except for a few street lamps that stand at the end of what used to be a parking lot. Then the lava seems to have spread a little and, among other things, just now passed over a sign directing visitors to the car park.

The lava continues to flow along the defense wall west of the Blue Lagoon.

This is the main parking lot of the Blue Lagoon and there are parking spaces for around 350 cars as well as bus parking. Helga Árnadóttir, manager of sales, operations and services at the Blue Lagoon, told mbl.is earlier today that access to the Blue Lagoon needs to be assessed when the time comes to see whether there are possibilities to use other access routes for vehicles.

"It is impossible to tell the damage at this point, but we will see this better as time goes on and how we can respond." There are some parking options at the reservoir, but we need to take a closer look at it in the future," Árnadóttir said.

Is https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/eruption-begins-on-the-sundhnukur-fissure-swarm
Is this showing the car park is outside the barrier?
(small road loop around parking area?)

This feels undervalued considering that an eruption within 5km could be imminent according to scientists: https://www.ruv.is/english/2023-12-29-increased-risk-of-eruption-north-of-grindavik-400906

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules