Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at probabilities other than 50%? (by July 2025)

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5

Ṁ10k

resolved Jul 6

Resolved

YES

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1W

1M

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The Maniswap algorithm allows liquidity to be injected at arbitrary probabilities, but to my knowledge there's no way to use that when creating a market. If someone points out that there actually is already a way to initialize binary markets at probabilities other than 50%, this market resolves YES.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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New market for adding this to the UI: https://manifold.markets/AriZerner/will-manifold-add-a-way-for-creator-cnxy569d74

bought Ṁ550 YES

https://docs.manifold.markets/api#post-v0market

It says you can specify an initial probability when you create the market with the API. I've seen people do this in the past, but I'm not sure if it currently works or not.

bought Ṁ2,500 YES

It works. See @LessWrong questions

I'll test later today to confirm, and resolve yes if it succeeds. Would be nice to have a way to do this in the UI, but thanks for bringing this to my attention!

bought Ṁ6,990 YES

@AriZerner time to resolve yes

Wow, you're watching closely! Indeed, tested here: https://manifold.markets/AriZerner/will-this-market-get-me-a-job-in-20

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Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at non-50% probabilities in the UI? (by July 2025)

Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024?

Will Manifold hire a professional market creator by the end of 2025?

Will Manifold allow you to combine markets by the end of 2024?

Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024 or 2025?

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Will Manifold add a new market type, after numeric, before the end of 2024?

Will Manifold significantly improve the reliability of extreme market probabilities before the end of 2024?

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Will Manifold implement another way to handle conditional markets before 2026?

Will Manifold hire a professional market creator by the end of 2025?

Will Manifold add a new market type, after numeric, before the end of 2024?

Will Manifold allow you to combine markets by the end of 2024?

Will Manifold significantly improve the reliability of extreme market probabilities before the end of 2024?

Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Before 2026, will Manifold innovate its way to a market correctly pricing a 1-in-100,000 random chance of Yes as 0.001%?