Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at probabilities other than 50%? (by July 2025) | Manifold

Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at probabilities other than 50%? (by July 2025)

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resolved Jul 6

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The Maniswap algorithm allows liquidity to be injected at arbitrary probabilities, but to my knowledge there's no way to use that when creating a market. If someone points out that there actually is already a way to initialize binary markets at probabilities other than 50%, this market resolves YES.

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New market for adding this to the UI: https://manifold.markets/AriZerner/will-manifold-add-a-way-for-creator-cnxy569d74

bought Ṁ550 YES

https://docs.manifold.markets/api#post-v0market

It says you can specify an initial probability when you create the market with the API. I've seen people do this in the past, but I'm not sure if it currently works or not.

bought Ṁ2,500 YES

It works. See @LessWrong questions

I'll test later today to confirm, and resolve yes if it succeeds. Would be nice to have a way to do this in the UI, but thanks for bringing this to my attention!

bought Ṁ6,990 YES

@AriZerner time to resolve yes

Wow, you're watching closely! Indeed, tested here: https://manifold.markets/AriZerner/will-this-market-get-me-a-job-in-20

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