Will GPT-5 be released before Claude 4?
10
100Ṁ401
2026
8%
chance

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Claude 4. Resolves NO otherwise.

If it is clear that OpenAI has departed from the GPT-X naming convention, then this market will resolve to NO.

If it is clear that Anthropic has departed from the Claude X naming convention, then this market can still resolve to YES if GPT-5 is released.

Publicly released includes if it is behind their subscription or a roll-out where some people have access and some are still waiting. If it's publicly released but only for API access this will still resolve YES.

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