https://twitter.com/bryan_johnson
Will resolve as N/A, if he dies in an apocalypse/accident
Will resolve to age at death if dies of illness, accident related to life extension procedure, suicide.
Will resolve to age at death even if cryopreserved
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I mean... betting on him living to 103 is basically betting he's discovered > 1 decade's worth of meaningful longevity secrets, no? Because even someone of his wealth and health shouldn't live on average more than ~90 years, even extrapolating fairly optimistic future trends on lifespan.
@BenjaminShindel Dude, by the time heβs 90, itβs 2070s. Weβll be either all immortal or dead.
@AntonMakiievskyi Umm, feel free to make a market for that! Happy to bet against you there :)
Here is my very simple model for his life expectancy:
Super-rich men: 90
Plus continuing trend of generally increased life expectancy due to medical progress: 95
Plus super healthy lifestyle: 100+?
Plus medical progress aided by future AI/AGI: ++?
Why are some people betting NO at around 100 years?
Is there something off with this model?
Or do you think there's a significant chance that his more speculative interventions could be net harmful?
@AntonMakiievskyi What happens to this market if he hasn't yet died by the time he is 1000 years old? Will it resolve to 1000?
@Simon74fe in seriousness, I believe that according to description it shouldn't be resolved at age 1000 if he is still alive, same as at any other age. Even if humans become immortal - there is always a suicide possibility
@AntonMakiievskyi It seems the market can't resolve to higher than 1000? So if humans become practically immortal we would have to wait until someday it resolves to either 1000, or to N/A?
I have a feeling that one of the more cutting edge health tech innovations will have adverse side effects that may even render a lower than average lifespan.
Do all diseases count? A future pandemic seems like a significant risk. I'd suggest not counting contagious diseases beyond some threshold of deadliness (e.g. if it's deadlier than covid). I think it's still fine to make this change/clarification at this point.
@zero What age are you hoping for? One of your trades took the expected age from 113 to 382 years.
I appreciate all your efforts, but surely you'll have cancer, a stroke and dementia before you're 200 years old...
Bryan Johnson isn't that great at this anti-aging thing.
He's outranked by several people on the Dunedin pace clock and his own anti-aging leaderboard, all of whom have less intensive anti-aging protocols than him. He's throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks. It's flashy and it gets media attention, but it can hardly be argued to be efficacious, especially at the cost of quality of life that it invokes. In fact, he may be doing too many things, as evidenced by his poor effort to reward ratio.
Chris Mirable reversed his aging by 5x as much as Johnson without nearly as intensive of a routine as Johnson, eating way more calories than Johnson, and maintaining a comparatively normal life.
I think there are bound to be huge interference effects when you try to combine every protocol that has had a paper or two written about it into one big package. He needs to slow down, focus on the most clinically validated interventions in appropriate dose, then go from there. There's no need to max everything out just yet. We've seen how well that has worked with him crashing his IGF, his testosterone, losing enough body fat to end up on the other end of the j shaped curve, and taking multiple prescription drugs that have overlapping methods of affect in supraphysiologic doses.
