Will >90% of professional salaried workers no longer be classed as exempt from overtime pay by the end of 2028?
3
28
แน€110
2029
27%
chance

Currently salaried employees which satisfy certain requirements are exempt from recieving overtime pay under federal law. Roughly speaking, the following classes are exempt:

  1. Those who perform work requiring advanced knowledge (Learned Professional Exemption)

  2. Those who work requiring invention, imagination, originality or talent (Creative Professional Exemption)

  3. Teachers

  4. Practicioners of law or medicine, even if they do not meet the standard minimum salary requirement.

For further details, see:

https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/fact-sheets/17d-overtime-professional

This market resolves YES if, under federal regulations, before the end of 2028 all four aforementioned classes of employee can recieve overtime pay. There may still be a maximum salary beyond which most salaried employees no longer recieve overtime pay, as long as it does not exceed the national 90th percentile salary at the time of resolution.

Note that there is a second, partially overlapping rule involving exemptions for certain computer professionals:

https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/fact-sheets/17e-overtime-computer

The overlapping part of the computer professionals exemption must also be removed in order for this market to resolve YES.

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